Forecasting the Seasonal Timing of Maine's Lobster Fishery

Mills, Katherine E.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Hernández, Christina M.

doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00337

Cited by 41 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The time series revealed that 2012 season was indeed anomalously early over the study period, but not such an outlier to explain the magnitude of disruption in the lobster industry (Figure ), similar to trends in landings (Mills, Pershing, & Hernandez, ). This reiterates that initial intra‐annual molt timing is only one component of the more complex economic system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

“…Most studies that concern molt timing have either focused on an area outside the GoM (Northeastern Nova Scotia, Canada; Tremblay & Eagles, ), were conducted in autumn (Thakur et al., ), or they have utilized data that do not directly determine the molt stage of individual lobsters (Mills et al., , ; his study). Therefore, there is no truly descriptive time series for initial intra‐annual molting within the GoM, as previous attempts rely on proxies such as shell condition and color, or landings, with no evaluation available on the relationship between such proxies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Markets are sensitive to such information, and incorrect forecasts (or correct forecasts, for that matter) result in lobster pricing shifts that may not reflect future fishery harvests. Previous attempts at forecasting the timing of lobster landings in the GoM have employed a statistical model to generate forward‐looking predictions (Mills et al., ). Such models give a probabilistic estimation based on the historical association of outcomes and independent variables and do not provide a framework that allows for input values to create specific outcomes (Spanos, ), which those authors readily acknowledge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal variability in the phenology of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards, 1837) and its relationship with bottom temperatures in a changing Gulf of Maine

Staples

Chen

Townsend

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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This study uses the Maine Department of Marine Resources Lobster Sea Sampling data (2000–2016) and logistic models to develop the first time series for the timing and suddenness of onset of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster in the Gulf of Maine (GoM), an annual fishery recruitment event crucial to fishermen. Data from three GoM regions (eastern, central, and western coastal Maine) were further divided by sex and estimated maturity of sampled lobsters for analysis. We found differences in the patterns of initial molt timing and suddenness between the regions, sexes, and stages of maturity. Using the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecasting System hindcast temperatures, seasonal accumulated degrees above 5°C were used to describe the thermal history for each region at ocean depths of about 5 and 110 m. These temperature metrics were used in generalized linear models to investigate the potential effects of seasonal temperatures on the initial molt season. Results showed that initial intra‐annual molting of lobsters was variable from 2000 to 2016, with periods of both earlier and more sudden molts and later and more protracted molts. Warmer temperatures, specifically inshore temperatures, were generally associated with an earlier molt, but without complete uniformity in the direction and magnitude across seasons, regions, and lobster demographics. We also discuss why developing molt time series and quantifying the connection to the bottom temperatures are necessary and emphasized why existing monitoring programs and the applied quantification techniques herein make this relationship difficult to quantify.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal variability in the phenology of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards, 1837) and its relationship with bottom temperatures in a changing Gulf of Maine

Staples

Chen

Townsend

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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“…Several forecasts of phenological events have been developed (Payne et al, ), including one in the GoM of the threshold conditions and timing of when the Maine lobster fishery can be expected to shift into its high landings summer mode (Mills, Pershing, & Hernández, ). This model uses buoy‐based temperature observations and historical fishery data to forecast the timing of the uptick in fishery landings 3–4 months in advance (Mills et al, ). Similar models that rely on temperature observations, biological lags, and historical temperature–biology relationships have been developed in other regions to forecast the timing of salmon runs (e.g., Anderson & Beer, ).…”

Section: Adaptation Strategies Related To Phenologymentioning

confidence: 99%

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

Staudinger

Mills

Stamieszkin

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological‐human systems; and (d) potential phenology‐focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, occurrence of several larval fishes, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of additional larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro‐invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter–spring ice‐affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species‐specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long‐term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine and identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

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“…The present study is the third in a series of recently emerging forecasting products applied to the American lobster that range from short‐term, seasonal‐scale (Mills et al. ) to long‐term, decadal‐scale forecasts (Le Bris et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

Oppenheim

Wahle

Brady

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species’ range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post‐settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.

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Forecasting the Seasonal Timing of Maine's Lobster Fishery

Cited by 41 publications

References 31 publications

Spatiotemporal variability in the phenology of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards, 1837) and its relationship with bottom temperatures in a changing Gulf of Maine

Spatiotemporal variability in the phenology of the initial intra‐annual molt of American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards, 1837) and its relationship with bottom temperatures in a changing Gulf of Maine

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

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