Forecasting the risks of man-made and ecological disasters

Abstract

The paper provides the SWOT analysis procedure for forecasting and assessing the possibility of man-made and ecological disasters, the technology and intellect-card of the catastrophe risk assessment process. An expert system for operational assessment and forecasting of the scale of a radiation accident at the nuclear power plant is developed. An expert system, created considering a base of relevant knowledge, as well as current data (facts) from dosimeter monitoring posts located around the nuclear power plant, and meteorological information, is considered. It is concluded that such an expert system for assessing and forecasting the situation at a nuclear power plant in the event of an accident should be a standard tool at any nuclear power plant: its use allows to assess the environmental state and decision making quickly and with a high degree of reliability.