Forecasting the price index on the energy market of Ukraine considering the effect of the “green” tariffs laws

Abstract

The "green" tariff laws in effect in Ukraine were adopted without the necessary technical and economic justification. These laws provide RES owners a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to hypertrophied losses of the Ukrainian energy market. In the process of the state developing a set of measures to radically improve the existing situation, it is necessary to have a wide range of methods of system analysis, including the determination of price indices on the energy market. In the paper a new method and a corresponding mathematical model for determining price indices on energy markets are proposed and tested on real data in conditions of solar and wind power plants functioning in the integrated energy system structure and when "green" tariff laws actions. The model determines the size of the electricity production sector, where competitive relations are maintained. Then the total costs of the energy market are calculated for the summary production of electricity in the power system at both market and fixed prices. The new price is defined as the ratio of total costs to the capacity of electricity production in the sector with competitive relations. The price index is calculated as the ratio of the new price to the market price recorded on the energy market in the base year. Calculations based on real data of the Ukraine’s IES for 2021 showed that if there were no RES in the energy system structure, the market price for electricity would be 2.17 times lower than the actual price. Research of the price index on the energy market of Ukraine at the development of its IES in accordance with the approved government documents showed that at the level of 2030 the average price for electricity will increase by 3.74 times. The country's economy will not be able to withstand such an electricity prices increasing. To solve this problem of national importance, a fundamentally new approach must be implemented. One of the effective solutions is the organization of RES functioning based on the principle of self-sufficiency, when RES ensures frequency and power stability with its own energy. Keywords: market price, price index, energy system, energy market, preference, payback.