Forecasting the pattern of urban growth with PUP: a web-based model interfaced with GIS and 3D animation

Bell, Martin; Dean, Camin; Blake, Marcus

doi:10.1016/s0198-9715(00)00017-x

Cited by 40 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Urban infill, a basic process in urbanization and a threat to greenbelts, has been captured in a number of modeling studies (Bell at al., 2000;Wilson et al, 2003;Syphard et al, 2005). Many modeling studies with SLEUTH use historical growth patterns for calibration and then use four specific growth types-random dispersion, expansion from spontaneous urbanization (sprawl), expansion from settlements, and growth along transportation networks (e.g., Jantz et al, 2003;Syphard et al, 2005;Oguz et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating Land use Scenarios for City Greenbelts Using A Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell: Two Case Studies

2009

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City greenbelts or greenways are usually created to achieve multiple goals, often including conservation of agricultural or range land, preservation of unique environments and heritage, recreation, and creation of transportation and utility corridors. Tradeoffs may be required in meeting these multiple goals. Analysis of potential future trajectories for urban development with such greenbelts is important to characterize the drivers and spatially explicit patterns of change that may ensue. Spatially explicit multi-criteria analysis provides one approach for examination of driver and patterns. In this paper, we use a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell (MCAS-S) to explore two case studies: (1) a 1250 ha subset of the Toronto Greenbelt in the Durham region of Ontario (Canada); and (2) the Balcones Canyonlands Conservation Plan area for endangered species protection on the western side of Austin, Texas (USA). In both cases, urbanization and encroachment are major pressures. The study areas were described by GIS data layers grouped into themes that capture major competing factors-e.g., residential preference, physical constraints to development, agricultural and environmental assets, tourism, and infrastructure development. Rules were constructed that combined preference for access to green space with limits to development, and a range of scenario layers were created to indicate likely future development areas. Development in the Toronto Greenbelt was mostly associated with areas of low likelihood of development, probably because areas that met all requirements-limited impact on agriculture and environment but helpful for tourism and infrastructure-were difficult to find. By contrast, development in the Austin BCCP was associated with urban infill modified by proximity to preserves. Although the results are only associative and not causative, they illustrate the difficulties of satisfying multiple competing goals in greenbelts, and the tendency for preserved patches to be incrementally surrounded by development. [

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating Land use Scenarios for City Greenbelts Using A Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell: Two Case Studies

2009

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“…This book is a sequel to the book, "Global Environmental Databases" which was published in July 2000 as one of the activities by the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS Working Group IV/6 (1996-2000. The following Working Group IV/8 (2000-2004 on "Global Environmental Databases" has taken over this activity by the same cochairmen, Tateishi and Hastings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, there is a growing trend Municipalities' limits in the study area towards the combined use of geographical information systems and spatial remote sensing (Hinton 1996, Poulter 1995, Brown and Fletcher 1994, Dobson 1993, Staret et al 1991, Nellis et al 1990). Those tools can provide a general view of all the urban and suburban components (Haala andBrenner 1999, Anys et al 1998a) and offer spatio-temporal follow-up that can be readily adapted to observed phenomena (Bell et al 2000, Batty et al 1999, Trotter 1991, Meaille and Wald 1990.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS and High‐Resolution SPOT Imagery for Evaluating the Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Lands

Anys¹,

He²,

Bijaber³

et al. 2002

Geocarto International

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This study advocates the use of GIS and remote sensing technologies to establish urban evolution maps and assess the impact of urbanization on agricultural areas over the last three decades. The target area is the city of Béni-Mellal, located in central Morocco. The methodology adopted makes use of panchromatic SPOT images to survey the urban areas during the 1980s and 1990s. Available topographic maps provided the information for the 1970s. Maps and statistics of land use and urban growth for Béni Mellal were established after manually classifying images on a perpolygon basis and digitizing topographic maps using GIS capabilities. The results show an increase in dense urban area by 980.7 ha from the 1970s to the 1990s. This increase occurred at the expense of forests (24.7 ha), plantations (752.3 ha), rangeland (113.4 ha), non-irrigated land (69.7 ha), and irrigated land (20.6 ha). During this period, scattered urban areas, predominantly suburbs, increased by 755.9 ha to the detriment of forests (14.9 ha), plantations (109.8 ha), rangeland (138.9 ha), non-irrigated land(400.5 ha), and irrigated land (91.9 ha). These cartographic and statistic results are efficient decision-making tools for protecting agricultural land and planning urban and suburban areas.

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“…Chi & Voss, 2011), land-use/ housing-unit (e.g. Bell et al, 2000), exponential smoothing (e.g. Walters & Cai, 2008), all-age component (e.g.…”

Section: Individual Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts

Wilson

2014

Population Space and Place

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At the small area scale simple methods for forecasting total populations are often employed because of a lack of data for cohort‐component models, concerns about the reliability of these models for forecasting small population totals, and resource constraints. To date, a select number of authors have assessed the forecast accuracy of several individual, averaged, and composite models. This paper extends this stream of work by evaluating a large number of models on new datasets. The aims of the paper are to examine the performance of (a) 10 individual forecasting models (some of which are well known; others less so); (b) averages of every combination of 2, 3, 4, and 5 of the individual models (627 in total); and (c) composite models based on population size and growth rates (200,000 in total). Do averaged and composite models outperform individual models? Using new small area population datasets, forecasts from 2001 to 2031 were produced for three case study countries, Australia, New Zealand, and England & Wales. Both forecast accuracy and credibility (avoidance of negatives; degree of constraining to state populations) were assessed in 2011; for 2031, just credibility was evaluated. Of the individual models, constant share of growth (positive shares only) and constant share of population performed the best. A small proportion of averaged and composite models outperformed the best individual models in forecast accuracy. Several recommendations for the practice of small area population forecasting are made. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Forecasting the pattern of urban growth with PUP: a web-based model interfaced with GIS and 3D animation

Abstract: ABSTRACT. This paper describes a model (PUP -Projections for

Cited by 40 publications

References 19 publications

Creating Land use Scenarios for City Greenbelts Using A Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell: Two Case Studies

Creating Land use Scenarios for City Greenbelts Using A Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell: Two Case Studies

GIS and High‐Resolution SPOT Imagery for Evaluating the Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Lands

New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts

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