Forecasting the long-term deterioration of a cut slope in high-plasticity clay using a numerical model

Postill, Harry; Helm, P.; Dixon, Neil; Glendinning, S. G.; Smethurst, Joel; Rouainia, Mohamed; Briggs, Kevin; El-Hamalawi, Ashraf; Blake, Anthony

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105912

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The soil is modeled as a porous medium with variable saturation and depth-dependent saturated permeability (Postill et al, 2021). A two-phase flow approach is adopted where the pore phases are assumed to be air and water and are treated as immiscible fluids with differing density and viscosity.…”

Section: The Gmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This subsection is a summary of the key mechanisms and properties that influence the slope deterioration behavior in the GM used in our simulator. For more detail, see Rouainia et al (2020) and Postill et al (2021).…”

Section: The Gmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The parameters adopted in the modeling have been informed by the strain-softening behavior from previous modeling studies in over-consolidated clays (Potts et al, 1997; Ellis and O’Brien, 2007; Summersgill et al, 2018) as well as laboratory and field data (Bromhead and Dixon, 1986). The impact of weather and climate on cut slopes is modeled through a coupled fluid-mechanical approach (Rouainia et al, 2020) utilizing a nonlocal strain-softening model (Summersgill et al, 2018; Postill et al, 2021). This allows a detailed assessment of weather-driven deterioration.…”

Section: Application: Computer Experiments Of Cut Slope Deteriorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The experimental results presented here are focused on the slopes in high to very high-plasticity soils, such as slopes in the London Clay (Hight et al, 2003). While over 40 model inputs can be varied (FLAC, 2016; Rouainia et al, 2020; Postill et al, 2021), here we only vary slope geometry (angle and height), soil shear strength (cohesion and friction angle), and permeability. These variables were selected over the remaining ones as previous work has demonstrated their importance in assessing the stability of geotechnical infrastructure (Potts et al, 1997; Ellis and O’Brien, 2007; Rouainia et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Great Western Main Line (GWML) and the M4 motorway corridors are constructed through a number of geological formations, a significant proportion of which are comprised of over-consolidated and high-plasticity clays (Charlesworth, 1984; Skempton, 1996). These materials are prone to seasonal shrink–swell movements as they wet and dry, along with downslope ratcheting (Take and Bolton, 2011), both of which contribute to strain softening (Rouainia et al, 2020; Postill et al, 2021) reducing their strength over time. With the GWML and M4 earthworks that are of ca.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emulating computer experiments of transport infrastructure slope stability using Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference

Svalova

Helm

Prangle

et al. 2021

DCE

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We propose using fully Bayesian Gaussian process emulation (GPE) as a surrogate for expensive computer experiments of transport infrastructure cut slopes in high-plasticity clay soils that are associated with an increased risk of failure. Our deterioration experiments simulate the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and seasonal pore water pressure cycles to determine slope failure time. It is impractical to perform the number of computer simulations that would be sufficient to make slope stability predictions over a meaningful range of geometries and strength parameters. Therefore, a GPE is used as an interpolator over a set of optimally spaced simulator runs modeling the time to slope failure as a function of geometry, strength, and permeability. Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation are used to obtain posterior estimates of the GPE parameters. For the experiments that do not reach failure within model time of 184 years, the time to failure is stochastically imputed by the Bayesian model. The trained GPE has the potential to inform infrastructure slope design, management, and maintenance. The reduction in computational cost compared with the original simulator makes it a highly attractive tool which can be applied to the different spatio-temporal scales of transport networks.

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Section: The Gmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Gmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application: Computer Experiments Of Cut Slope Deteriorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emulating computer experiments of transport infrastructure slope stability using Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference

Svalova

Helm

Prangle

et al. 2021

DCE

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Modelling seasonal landslide motion: Does it only depend on fluctuations in normal effective stress?

Rollo,

Buscarnera

2023

Num Anal Meth Geomechanics

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Landslide motion is often simulated with interface‐like laws able to capture changes in frictional strength caused by the growth of the pore water pressure and the consequent reduction of the effective stress normal to the plane of sliding. Here it is argued that, although often neglected, the evolution of all the 3D stress components within the basal shear zone of landslides also contributes to changes in frictional strength and must be accounted for to predict changes in seasonal velocity. For this purpose, an augmented sliding‐consolidation model is proposed which allows for the computation of excess pore pressure development and downslope sliding with any constitutive law with 3D stress evolution. Simulations of idealised infinite slope models subjected to hydrologic forcing are used to study the role of in‐situ stress conditions and stress rate multiaxiality. Specifically, a Drucker‐Prager perfectly plastic model is used to replicate frictional failure and shear deformation at the base of landslides. The model reveals that conditions amenable to the shearing of a frictional interface are met only after numerous rainfall cycles, that is, when multiaxial stress rates are suppressed. In this case, the landslide is predicted to move through a seasonal ratcheting controlled only by the effective stress component normal to the plane of sliding. By contrast, in newly formed landslides, the multiaxial stress evolution is found to produce further regimes of motion, from plastic shakedown to cyclic failure, neither of which can be captured by interface‐like frictional laws. Notably, the model suggests that a transition across these regimes can emerge in response to an aggravation of the magnitude of forcing, implying that (i) fluctuations in climate may alter the seasonal trends of motion observed today; (ii) our ability to quantify landslide‐induced risks is impaired unless proper geomechanical models are used to examine their long‐term dynamics.

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A Long-Term Record of Water Content and Pore Water Pressure in a Vegetated Clay Highway Cut Slope

Smethurst

Sellaiya

Blake

et al. 2021

Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering

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Forecasting the long-term deterioration of a cut slope in high-plasticity clay using a numerical model

Cited by 25 publications

References 56 publications

Emulating computer experiments of transport infrastructure slope stability using Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference

Emulating computer experiments of transport infrastructure slope stability using Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference

Modelling seasonal landslide motion: Does it only depend on fluctuations in normal effective stress?

A Long-Term Record of Water Content and Pore Water Pressure in a Vegetated Clay Highway Cut Slope

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