Forecasting the Inland Extent of Lake Effect Snow Bands Downwind of Lake Ontario

Villani, Joseph P.; Jurewicz, Michael L.; Reinhold, Karin

doi:10.15191/nwajom.2017.0505

Cited by 16 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…We used archived NEXRAD images and other meteorological data to begin to assess the frequency of LE snowstorms that travel inland into the Catskills, and to confirm the importance of LE snow for the Catskill/Delaware Watershed that is important for the NYCWSS. Lake-effect storms can extend quite far inland and can contribute a significant percentage of the total snowfall to inland sites (e.g., Schmidlin, 1992;Villani, Jurewicz & Reinhold, 2017). Yet there has been very little discussion in the literature about the significance of the contribution of LE snow to the Catskills because the Catskill/Delaware Watershed in the Catskills is so far inland from the Great Lakes (~170 km from the closest point on the shoreline of Lake Ontario to the Cannonsville Reservoir in the Cannonsville Basin, and ~300 km from the closest point on the shoreline of Lake Erie to the Cannonsville Basin) (Figure 3).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to ice coverage and air-water temperature contrast, fetch, wind direction, and wind speed also affect the development and intensity of LE snow (e.g., see Villani, Jurewicz & Reinhold, 2017). Long fetch can increase the intensity of the LE storms by providing a greater surface area to allow more evaporation from the non-ice-covered lake surface (Steiger et al, 2013).…”

Section: Background Lake Effect Snowfall In the Eastern Great Lakes Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast to localized LE storms, the combination of long, overwater fetch and strong winds can cause narrow bands of precipitating clouds to propagate considerable distances inland (e.g., see Niziol, Snyder & Waldstreicher, 1995). The atmospheric parameters that have the greatest influence on the ability of a LE storm to extend inland from Lake Ontario are: 1) the presence of a multi-lake/upstream moisture source, and 2) the difference between the lake's surface water temperature (SWT) and the air temperature at 850 mb (Villani, Jurewicz & Reinhold, 2017).…”

Section: Background Lake Effect Snowfall In the Eastern Great Lakes Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the frequency of lake-effect snowfall in the Catskill Mountains

Hall

Frei

DiGirolamo³

2018

Physical Geography

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Meltwater from snow that falls in the Catskill/Delaware Watershed in the Catskill Mountains in south-central New York contributes to reservoirs that supply drinking water to approximately nine million people in and near New York City (NYC). Using the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) 4km snow maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Ice Center, we identified and tracked 28 lake-effect (LE) storms that deposited snow in the Catskill Mountains from 2004-2017. These storms, that generally originated from Lake Ontario, but sometimes from Lake Erie, represent an underestimate of the number of LE storms that contribute snowfall to the total Catskills snowpack because snowstorms are not visible on the IMS maps when they travel over already-snow-covered terrain. Using satellite, meteorological (including NEXRAD and National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program), and reanalysis data we identify conditions that contributed to the LE snowstorms and map snow-cover extent (SCE) following the storms when possible. IMS 4km maps tend to overestimate SCE compared to MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat. Though the total amount of snow from each LE snow event that contributes snow to the Catskills is often small, there are a large number of events in some years that, together, add up to a great deal of snow. Changes that are predicted in LE snowfall events could impact the distribution of rain vs. snow in the Catskills which may affect future reservoir operations in the NYC Water Supply System and winter recreation in the Catskills.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Background Lake Effect Snowfall In the Eastern Great Lakes Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Background Lake Effect Snowfall In the Eastern Great Lakes Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the frequency of lake-effect snowfall in the Catskill Mountains

Hall

Frei

DiGirolamo³

2018

Physical Geography

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“…We focus on four variables that influence the inland and orographic enhancement of sea-effect precipitation: 1) the mean boundary layer wind direction, 2) the mean boundary layer wind speed U, 3)Ĥ, and 4) SiCAPE. The mean direction and speed of the boundary layer flow influence the location, intensity, and inland penetration of lake-effect precipitation (e.g., Alcott and Steenburgh 2013;Villani et al 2017;V18). They are also integral to orographic precipitation processes, with stronger crossbarrier flow associated with a greater upslope moisture flux and decreased blocking (e.g., Sinclair et al 1997;Neiman et al 2002;Colle 2004;Panziera and Germann 2010;Yuter et al 2011).Ĥ provides a precise quantification of the terrain-induced flow behavior, accounting for barrier height, the barrier-normal flow component, and the static stability of the impinging air mass.…”

Section: B Environmental Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Affecting the Inland and Orographic Enhancement of Sea-Effect Snowfall in the Hokuriku Region of Japan

Veals

Steenburgh

Nakai

et al. 2019

Monthly Weather Review

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The Hokuriku region along the west coast of the Japanese island of Honshu receives exceptionally heavy snowfall accumulations, exceeding 500 cm from December to February near sea level and 1300 cm at high elevation sites, much of which is produced by sea-effect systems. Though the climatological enhancement of snowfall is large, the lowland–upland snowfall distribution within individual storms is highly variable, presenting a challenge for weather forecasting and climate projections. Utilizing data from a C-band surveillance radar, the ERA5 reanalysis, and surface precipitation observations, we examine factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement during sea-effect periods in the Hokuriku region during nine winters (December–February) from December 2007 to February 2016. The distribution and intensity of precipitation exhibits strong dependence on flow direction due to three-dimensional terrain effects. For a given flow direction, higher values of boundary layer wind speed and sea-induced CAPE favor higher precipitation rates, a maximum displaced farther inland and higher in elevation, and a larger ratio of upland to lowland precipitation. These characteristics are also well represented by the nondimensional mountain height H^, with H^<1 associated with a precipitation maximum over the high elevations and a larger ratio of upland to lowland precipitation, and H^>1 having the opposite effect. Nevertheless, even in high enhancement periods, precipitation rates decline as one moves inland from the first major mountain barrier, even over high terrain. These results highlight how the interplay between sea-effect and orographic processes modulates the distribution and intensity of precipitation in an area of complex and formidable topography.

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“…In addition, the atmospheric conditions and air-surface interactions must be considered over a larger area. For example, Villani et al (2017) found that an L2L connection, or a multilake connection as they called it, provided a greater tendency for LES snowbands over the downstream lake to extend inland for greater distances. In addition, Rose (2000) investigated an L2L event from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie using mesoscale model simulations and found that eliminating the presence of Lake Michigan 1) reduced the snowfall maximum by two-thirds, 2) reduced vertical ascent by one-half, and 3) decreased cloud depth by several hundred meters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of a Lake-to-Lake Connection from Lake Huron on the Lake-Effect Snowfall in the Vicinity of Lake Ontario

Lang

McDonald

Gaudet

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Lake-effect storms (LES) produce substantial snowfall in the vicinity of the downwind shores of the Great Lakes. These storms may take many forms; one type of LES event, lake to lake (L2L), occurs when LES clouds/snowbands develop over an upstream lake (e.g., Lake Huron), extend across an intervening landmass, and continue over a downstream lake (e.g., Lake Ontario). The current study examined LES snowfall in the vicinity of Lake Ontario and the atmospheric conditions during Lake Huron-to-Lake Ontario L2L days as compared with LES days on which an L2L connection was not present [i.e., only Lake Ontario (OLO)] for the cold seasons (October–March) from 2003/04 through 2013/14. Analyses of snowfall demonstrate that, on average, significantly greater LES snowfall totals occur downstream of Lake Ontario on L2L days than on OLO days. The difference in mean snowfall between L2L and OLO days approaches 200% in some areas near the Tug Hill Plateau and central New York State. Analyses of atmospheric conditions found more-favorable LES environments on L2L days relative to OLO days that included greater instability over the upwind lake, more near-surface moisture available, faster wind speeds, and larger surface heat fluxes over the upstream lake. Last, despite significant snowfalls on L2L days, their average contribution to the annual accumulated LES snowfall in the vicinity of Lake Ontario was found to be small (i.e., 25%–30%) because of the relatively infrequent occurrence of L2L days.

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Forecasting the Inland Extent of Lake Effect Snow Bands Downwind of Lake Ontario

Cited by 16 publications

References 26 publications

On the frequency of lake-effect snowfall in the Catskill Mountains

On the frequency of lake-effect snowfall in the Catskill Mountains

Factors Affecting the Inland and Orographic Enhancement of Sea-Effect Snowfall in the Hokuriku Region of Japan

The Influence of a Lake-to-Lake Connection from Lake Huron on the Lake-Effect Snowfall in the Vicinity of Lake Ontario

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