Forecasting the energy demand and CO2 emissions of industrial sectors in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under energy transition

Li, Bing; Zhou, Wenlong; Xian, Yujiao; Guan, Xinmeng

doi:10.1007/s11356-023-31538-w

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Dong et al used the LEAP model to predict carbon emissions for 12 major industrial sectors in Henan Province, identifying some sectors with potential for carbon neutrality [6]. Li et al used the model to project energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the industrial sector of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, finding an increasing energy demand and a shift towards a cleaner energy structure [25]. Hernandez et al applied the LEAP model to estimate CO 2 emissions in the industrial sector of the Bogotá region, highlighting the necessity of increasing electrical energy usage for emission reduction [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Gansu Manufacturing Industry in 2030

Tan,

Zhang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Decomposition analysis and forecasting of carbon emissions in manufacturing are crucial for setting sustainable carbon-reduction targets. Given the varied carbon-emission efficiencies across sectors, this study applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to analyze the drivers of carbon emissions in Gansu’s manufacturing sector, encompassing high, medium, and low-efficiency industries, and it identified vital factors affecting carbon emissions. A localized Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model for Gansu was also developed. This model includes six developmental scenarios to project future carbon emissions. The study results are as follows: (1) LMDI decomposition indicates that increased carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry primarily result from economic growth in less efficient sectors and the dominance of moderately efficient ones. (2) Under Optimization Scenario 6, a 50.82 × 104 ton reduction in carbon emissions is projected for Gansu’s manufacturing sector by 2030 compared to 2020, marking the carbon peak. These outcomes provide valuable insights for policy reforms in Gansu’s manufacturing industry, aiming for carbon peaking by 2030.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Gansu Manufacturing Industry in 2030

Tan,

Zhang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Carbon emission efficiency and regional synergistic peaking strategies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Gao,

Xia,

Lin

et al. 2024

Carb Neutrality

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the context of China's resolute advancement of dual carbon goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), urban agglomerations emerge as pivotal areas for carbon emission mitigation due to their dense economic activities and rapid urbanization. Previous studies overlook regional disparities in carbon emission prediction, disregarding the variations and policy directives across different provinces or cities. Therefore, this study addresses the research gap by investigating synergistic strategies to foster regional carbon peaking within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Employing a novel approach tailored to regional segmentation policies, we provide more accurate predictions reflecting real-world conditions and distinct policy landscapes. Meanwhile, we integrate carbon emission efficiency into our analysis, emphasizing the dual goals of emission reduction and quality economic growth. Our empirical investigation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, utilizing the Super-SBM and extended STIRPAT models, reveals upward trends in carbon emission efficiency, with varying trajectories across cities. Scenario simulations informed by the "14th Five-Year Plan" demonstrate that under the green development scenario, carbon peaking accelerates, alongside enhanced efficiency, supporting long-term emission reduction. Moreover, we design seven regional synergy carbon peak strategies for scenario simulations to facilitate the rational layout of dual carbon policies for collaborative development. We find that synergistic strategies have proven more effective in reducing regional carbon emission and increasing efficiency than strategies focusing solely on economic development or energy conservation. This innovative finding emphasizes the necessity of comprehensive green development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and provides strong evidence for policymakers. Our research contributes to targeted strategies for improving carbon emission efficiency and reducing emissions, emphasizing the importance of synergistic approaches for regional carbon reduction.

show abstract

Forecasting the energy demand and CO2 emissions of industrial sectors in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under energy transition

Cited by 2 publications

References 49 publications

Differential Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Gansu Manufacturing Industry in 2030

Differential Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Gansu Manufacturing Industry in 2030

Carbon emission efficiency and regional synergistic peaking strategies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About