Forecasting the Emission of Greenhouse Gases in the UK using SARIMA Model

Abstract

Earth’s climate change is an important and urgent issue, and most researchers believe it is caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) trap heat in the atmosphere, raising the temperature of our planet Human activity is the main source of greenhouse gases, including the burning of fossil fuels for energy, deforestation, and agriculture, all contribute to GHG emissions Earth’s temperature due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and resulting in rising sea levels, frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, floods and in excess weather events. India has seen a sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades and was the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world according to the Global Carbon Project In contrast, the United Kingdom has worked aggressively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. The objective of this study, is to provide a composite time series approach, to estimate GHG emissions for various industries producing greenhouse gases contributing to climate change. We used estimated greenhouse gas emission data available for the UK, which occurred in 1990. We subsequently conducted an exploratory data analysis to study the contributions to the total GHG emissions observed suggests that in the energy supply, it accounts for about 40% of total emissions. Furthermore, the study shows that greenhouse gas emissions decreased significantly in the years following the implementation of policies to increase energy efficiency Compared to emissions in the case of the UK to those in India, we gained a better understanding of emission norms in India and identified areas that require improvement.