Forecasting the effective reproduction number during a pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, governmental decisions and economic implications
Chrysovalantis Vasilakis,
Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
Abstract:This research empirically identifies the best-performing forecasting methods for the Effective Reproduction Number Rt of COVID-19, the most used epidemiological parameter for policymaking during the pandemic. Furthermore, based on the most accurate forecasts for the United Kingdom, we model the excess exports and imports during the pandemic (using World Trade Organization data), while simultaneously controlling for governmental decisions, i.e., lockdown(s) and vaccination. We provide empirical evidence that th… Show more
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