Forecasting Terrorism: The Need for a More Systematic Approach

Abstract

This article analyzes a unique branch of terrorism literature-terrorism futures-by academics, think tanks, and governmental agencies published between 2000 and 2012. To this end, it examines over sixty publications that attempt to discern possible futures of terrorism. In general, the track record of forecasting terrorism has not been good. This is particularly true for major changes in the modus operandi of terrorism, the attacks on 9/11 being a case in point. The analyses of the future of terrorism shows an absence of methodologies, and the lack of theoretical foundations, which lead to limited insights about the causes of changes in terrorism. Most forecasts seem to say more about the present state of terrorism than about the future. The article concludes with a call for a more systematic approach grounded in theory and methodology in order to improve the quality of foresight studies, and to enable researchers to better understand how to assess, model, forecast, and respond to the future terrorist threat.

International terrorist organization "Islamic State": history, contemporaneity, future

“…85 As criteria for inclusion in the sanctions list for the ISIS and Al-Qaeda the following were fixed: a) participation in financing, planning, facilitating, preparing or perpetrating of acts or activities of "the ISIS" or "Al-Qaida", in connection with them, under their name, on their behalf or in their support; b) supply, sale or transfer of arms and related materiel to the ISIS or Al-Qaida; c) recruitment for Al-Qaida, "the ISIS" or any of their cells, affiliates, splinter groups or offshoots, or otherwise supporting their acts or activities.…”

“…The UN Security Council welcomed the reports on the financing of terrorism (published in February and October 2015) and recommended that the relevant UN 84 UN Security Council Resolution 2170 (2014), adopted at its 7242 meeting on August 15, 2014 / https: //documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/undoc/pro/N14/507/35/pdf /N1450735.pdf 85 UN Security Council Resolution 2253 (2015), adopted at its 7587 meeting on December 17, 2015 / https: //documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/undoc/GEN/N15/437/48/pdf/N1543748.pdf structures regularly update the materials on the ISIS and related individuals, groups, enterprises and organizations that support this terrorist organization.…”

From Tactical to Strategic Deception Detection: Application of Psychological Synthesis

“…Scenario use for examining futures has been conducted across a wide range of areas, including in strategic planning, management, and business, the risk assessment and management of offenders, and in red-teaming terrorist scenarios. 104 Scenarios may be used as decision-making tools to overcome limitations and enable preparation for the unexpected and the construction of meaning from uncertainty and ambiguity through developing creative future responses. 105 Scenarios are socially constructed narratives, which integrate predetermined events with critical uncertainties to encourage future thinking and are not predictions or forecasts of the future.…”

The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

“…The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism [32] developed an important research analysing the references to the future evolution of this phenomenon in 60 surveys conducted by well-known institutions and experts. This survey reaches a conclusion: most of them lack a methodological basis; in general, they do not even mention possible dynamics of change that would allow establishing indicators to monitor the evolution of the phenomenon.…”