Forecasting Success on Large Projects: Developing Reliable Scales to Predict Multiple Perspectives by Multiple Stakeholders over Multiple Time Frames

Abstract

INTRODUCTION ■ L arge projects have an impact that can go well beyond the immediate completion of the project (Eweje, Turner, & Müller, 2012; Xue, 2009). Success is perceived not just by the traditional view of completing the work to time, cost, and quality, but also by whether the project delivers the desired outcome-that is, to deliver to the parent organization desired new capabilities and business objectives (Office of Government Commerce, 2007; Xue, 2009)-and whether it achieves the desired longerterm impacts (Xue, 2009), including delivering the parent organization's strategic objectives (Eweje et al., 2012), and desired future development of the business (Shenhar & Dvir, 2007). Large projects will have a wider range of stakeholders making judgments about whether the project and its output, outcome, and impact have achieved the desired objectives, and these stakeholders will make those judgments over the months, years, and even decades following project completion. The perception of success by a project's stakeholders often has little to do with whether the project was completed on time, at cost, and with the desired quality. There are well-known cases of projects that were substantially late and overspent but were later perceived to be very successful. The Sydney Opera House and Thames Barrier (Morris & Hough, 1987) are two examples. Meanwhile, other projects have been completed on time and at cost but have left their investors dissatisfied because they have failed to deliver the desired benefits. The Sydney Cross-City Tunnel for road traffic is one example. What this illustrates is that the wretched golden triangle of project success (time, cost, and quality) is an inadequate indicator of project success, and that success is not just related to completion of the project's scope of work, but also to the achievement of business objectives (i.e., the project delivers the desired outputs, outcomes, and impacts, that different stakeholders assess these different levels of project success, and that they do so over different time frames). The aim of this research is to develop a set of leading performance indicators for large projects that can be measured during project delivery to predict project success. Project success is measured not just by completion of the scope of work to time, cost, and quality, but also by performance of the project's outputs, outcomes, and impacts, and thereby the achievement of the desired business objectives, as assessed by different stakeholders over

Cost overruns – helping to define what they really mean

“…Quality comprises a broad range of topics (safety and security, environmental constraints, socio-economic aspects, stakeholders expectations, etc.) and can be assessed at different points in time and according to a number of different stakeholders involved in the project development (Davis 2014;Turner & Zolin 2012). Time is sometimes argued to be a better indicator project performances than costs, being "more visible", harder to be manipulated and a driver for cost itself.…”

The four-level project success framework: application and assessment

“…Many factors influence the definition process and every evaluator perceives success from a different point of view (Baccarini 1999;Turner & Zolin 2012;Kerzner 2013). Thus, there is a need for more tools to capture the various aspects of project success.…”

European network for Health Technology Assessment Joint Action (EUnetHTA JA): a process evaluation performed by questionnaires and documentary analysis

“…Project team member's perspective often includes whether or not they had a satisfactory experience with the project and if it met their needs, while the sponsor considers if the project has provided the desired performance improvement. 56 Therefore, evaluation of participants' perceptions of the challenges and benefits of the project was included in the evaluation. Project success can also be indicated by high team satisfaction, good morale, increased skill, retention and growth of team members and avoidance of burnout.…”

“…This should also be expanded to include delivery of new capabilities and business objectives, and assessment of the project's long-term impact. 56 Project performance can be measured during the lifetime of a project. However, the success or failure of a project can usually only be evaluated months or years after its finish, when the resultant impact can be measured.…”