Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: Learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O’Donnell, Michael S.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.03.002

Cited by 49 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…While gradual change processes are slow, their cumulative impacts can be substantial (Vogelmann et al 2012) and provide clues to the impact of various change agents. Homer et al (2015) demonstrated a method, later refined by Shi et al (2018), that uses Landsat imagery in a change vector (CV) framework to model gradual changes through time in a suite of fractional rangeland attributes (shrub, sagebrush, herbaceous, bare ground, and litter) measured as 0-100% cover, hereafter fractional components.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin, USA

et al. 2019

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The need to monitor change in sagebrush steppe is urgent due to the increasing impacts of climate change, shifting fire regimes, and management practices on ecosystem health. Remote sensing provides a cost-effective and reliable method for monitoring change through time and attributing changes to drivers. We report an automated method of mapping rangeland fractional component cover over a large portion of the Northern Great Basin, USA, from 1986 to 2016 using a dense Landsat imagery time series. Our method improved upon the traditional change vector method by considering the legacy of change at each pixel. We evaluate cover trends stratified by climate bin and assess spatial and temporal relationships with climate variables. Finally, we statistically evaluate the minimum time density needed to accurately characterize temporal patterns and relationships with climate drivers. Over the 30-yr period, shrub cover declined and bare ground increased. While few pixels had >10% cover change, a large majority had at least some change. All fractional components had significant spatial relationships with water year precipitation (WYPRCP), maximum temperature (WYTMAX), and minimum temperature (WYTMIN) in all years. Shrub and sagebrush cover in particular respond positively to warming WYTMIN, resulting from the largest increases in WYTMIN being in the coolest and wettest areas, and respond negatively to warming WYTMAX because the largest increases in WYTMAX are in the warmest and driest areas. The trade-off of lowering temporal density against removing cloud-contaminated years is justified as temporal density appears to have only a modest impact on trends and climate relationships until n ≤ 6, but multi-year gaps are proportionally more influential. Gradual change analysis is likely to be less sensitive to n than abrupt change. These data can be used to answer critical questions regarding the influence of climate change and the suitability of management practices.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin, USA

et al. 2019

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“…Temperature was not supported as an important predictor of future vegetation in this limited geographic extent (Homer et al. ). When pixels were identified as changed from 2010, pixel‐based linear regression equations were developed to quantify the relationship between predicted vegetation components, including percent cover of sagebrush, herbaceous, and bare ground (Homer et al.…”

Section: Mapping Habitat Impactsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Similarly, we used climate‐induced vegetation change models (Homer et al. ) to map how Sage‐grouse habitat components could be modified at 2050. Changes in vegetation and development footprint were used to recalculate seasonal habitat selection maps by updating the habitat selection (resource selection function, RSF; Fedy et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Past precipitation conditions (Daymet data; 1‐km resolution; see Homer et al. ) were associated with historic changes in sagebrush‐associated vegetation, detected with remotely sensed imagery (1985–2010; years 1985, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2008, and 2010). Temperature was not supported as an important predictor of future vegetation in this limited geographic extent (Homer et al.…”

Section: Mapping Habitat Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Initial explorations of climate‐induced vegetation change indicate that over 10% of key nesting and summer brood habitat identified for Sage‐grouse (as of 2006) could be lost due to changes in climate, with virtually no new habitat gained (Homer et al. ). Changes in the distribution and abundance of vegetation could affect what Sage‐grouse consider as habitat at both patch and landscape scales (Fedy et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage‐grouse declines and redistribution

Heinrichs

O’Donnell

Aldridge

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long‐term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual‐based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage‐grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate‐induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time‐series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate‐induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long‐term Sage‐grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual‐based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate‐induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

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Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

Munson

Sankey

Xian

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote-sensing-based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo-edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite (Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo-edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate-induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.

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Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: Learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

Cited by 49 publications

References 60 publications

Long‐term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin, USA

Long‐term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin, USA

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage‐grouse declines and redistribution

Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

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