Forecasting Pacific Salmon Production in a Changing Climate: A Review of the 2011–2015 NPAFC Science Plan

Urawa, Shigehiko; Irvine, James; Kim, Ju Kyoung; Volk, Eric C.; Zavolokin, A. V.; Azumaya, Tomonori; Beacham, Terry D.; Бугаев, А. С.; Farley, Edward V.; Guyon, Jeffrey R.; Kim, Sang Gyu; Kishi, Michio J.; Klovach, Nataliya; Koval, M.E.; Lee, Do‐Hyun; Naydenko, S. V.; Oxman, Dion S.; Saito, Toshihiko; Sato, Shunpei; Saunders, M.; Темных, О. С.; Tompkins, Arlene; Trudel, Marc; Волобуев, В. В.; Warheit, Kenneth I.; Davis, Nancy

doi:10.23849/npafcb6/501-534

Cited by 2 publications

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“…It is important to mention that this study considered simple temperature scenarios—not scenarios of river conditions predicted under future climate change. Fish migration was simulated using a set of very simple increases in temperature over and above prevailing seasonal temperatures, and likewise this study does not account for the myriad of potential changes in precipitation, timing of snow melt and subsequent changes in river flows, or oceanic effects on energetic status and maturation of returning adults that may occur prior to spawning under future climate change (Crozier & Hutchings, ; Urawa et al., ). Based on metabolic power (adenosine triphosphate re‐synthesis per unit of time) calculations with temperature, Martin, Nisbet, Pike, Michel, and Danner () concluded that ignoring constraints on metabolic power may result in as much as a 60% underestimation of the effect of temperature on salmon migration costs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

Plumb

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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High water temperatures can increase the energetic cost for salmon to migrate and spawn, which can be important for Snake River fall‐run Chinook salmon because they migrate great distances (>500 km) at a time when river temperatures (18–24°C) can be above their optimum temperatures (16.5°C). Average river temperatures and random combinations of migration and spawning dates were used to simulate fish travel times and determine the energetic consequences of different thermal experiences during migration. An energy threshold criterion (4 kJ/g) was also imposed on survival and spawning success, which was used to determine how prevailing temperatures might select against certain migration dates and thermal experiences, and in turn, explain the selection for the current spawning phenology of the population. Scenarios of tributary use for thermal refugia under increasing water temperatures (1, 2, and 3°C) were also run to determine which combinations of migration dates, travel rates, and resulting thermal experiences might be most affected by energy exhaustion. As expected, when compared to observations, the model under existing conditions and energy use could explain the onset, but not the end of the observed spawning migration. Simulations of early migrants had greater energy loss than late migrants regardless of the river temperature scenario, but higher temperatures disproportionately selected against a larger fraction of early‐migrating fish, although using cold‐water tributaries during migration provided a buffer against higher energy use at higher temperatures. The fraction of simulated fish that exceeded the threshold for migration success increased from 58% to 72% as average seasonal river temperatures over baseline temperatures increased. The model supports the conclusion that increases in average seasonal river temperatures as little as 1°C could impose greater thermal constraints on the fish, select against early migrants, and in turn, truncate the onset of the current spawning migration.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

Plumb

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…The distribution of juvenile salmon along their migration trajectory may be affected by physiological conditions such as body size and environmental factors such as water temperature, ocean currents, food availability (zooplankton biomass), etc. (Urawa et al 2016). Japanese juvenile chum salmon were previously distributed during summer and autumn periods (from the mid-July to the November) in the Okhotsk Sea (Ueno and Ishida.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Warming Effect for Migration Route of Japanese Chum Salmon

2018

Technical Report 11

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Forecasting Pacific Salmon Production in a Changing Climate: A Review of the 2011–2015 NPAFC Science Plan

Cited by 2 publications

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A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

Global Warming Effect for Migration Route of Japanese Chum Salmon

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