Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Abstract

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short-and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime-and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes

“…The RTM identified other associated dissident Republican activity as strong influences on the locations of bombings. This finding is also consistent with Dugato et al (2017), who found the highest correlates of mafia homicides in Naples to be other Camorra related activity. It was proposed that there may be an increased risk in areas surrounding premises relevant to the group's ideology.…”

“…Gale and Hollernan (2013) found a statistically significant association between burglary and calls for suspicious persons and vehicles. Dugato et al's (2017) RTM of organised crime violence in Italy from 2004 to 2011 found that other crime activities of the group such as drug-dealing were significant correlates of mafia homicides (Dugato et al 2017). 11% of the city area was identified as being at high risk.…”

Applying Crime Pattern Theory and Risk Terrain Modeling to Examine Environmental Crime in Cambodia

“…The relative simplicity and user-friendliness of the technique and its related software (discussed later) provide an opportunity for practitioners to readily utilize the approach with minimal resources as well. Prior studies have demonstrated the applicability of RTM to assess a variety of criminal activities, like residential burglary (Dugato et al, 2018; Moreto et al, 2014), organized crime homicide (Dugato et al, 2017), violent crime (Caplan et al, 2013a), maritime piracy (Caplan, Moreto, & Kennedy, 2011), and terrorism (Onat & Gul, 2018). RTM, however, has not been used within the context of environmental crime.…”

Where Are We? Using Scopus to Map the Literature at the Intersection Between Artificial Intelligence and Crime

“…They have been fundamental, among the others, in the development of the field of life-course criminology [14,15,16,17,18,19], and in the study of the spatio-temporal concentration of crime [20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27]. Furthermore, they have been fundamental in unfolding mechanisms in the study of terrorism [28,29,30,31,7,32] and organized crime [33,34,35], and have been applied to shed light on features and patterns of specific crimes, either violent [36,37,38] or not [39,40]. Common methods include regression analyses, finite mixture models, network analysis, Markovian models, structural equation modeling, multilevel analysis and causal models [5].…”