Forecasting of Water Consumptions Expenditure Using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA

Razali, Siti Noor Asyikin Mohd; Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah; Zawawi, N. I.; Arbin, Norazman

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/995/1/012041

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In this research, IT2FLC is used to check the stability for an inverted pendulum and compared the result with PID controller that proved IT2FLC is better than PID controller for this system. For future research, it will be of interest to study other types of real world problems such as impulsive effects on optimal controller [20], directional change error evaluation [21], water consumptions expenditure [22], solid steel beam at elevated [23] in the framework of [24] and type-2 fuzzy controller.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intelligent System Stability using Type-2 Fuzzy Controller

Nagarajan

Lathamaheswari

Kavikumar

et al. 2019

IJIE

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To avoid mathematical complexity, Interval T2FSs (IT2FSs) have been pertained in majority of the fields. Type-2 fuzzy sets (T2FSs) handle a greater modeling and uncertainties that exist in the real world applications especially in control systems. One of the important components that influence the fuzzy controller is the triangular norm, which is the aggregation operator. For getting the stability of a control system T-norm operator can be preferred. Gaussian Interval Type-2 Membership Function (GIT2MF) has been used in this research. Mathematical properties of aggregation operator also proved using Gaussian Interval Type-2 Weighted Arithmetic (GIT2WA) operator. The aim of this research is analyzing the stability of an inverted pendulum using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Controller (IT2FLC) and the results are compared with traditional Proportional Integrated Derivative (PID) controller. It is observed that IT2FL controller gives better stability under imprecise condition.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intelligent System Stability using Type-2 Fuzzy Controller

Nagarajan

Lathamaheswari

Kavikumar

et al. 2019

IJIE

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“…Holt-Winter exponential smoothing is a statistical method which is used here to simulate drought at 1 month lead time. It provides an effective way of forecasting of future value of time series data (Razali et al,2018). α, β, are the 3 smoothing constants are required for updating the level, trend and seasonal index respectively at time, t. The value of these constants lies between 0 to 1 (Elmunim et al,, 2015).…”

Section: Holt-winter Exponential Smoothingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative study of different exponential smoothing models in simulation of meteorological drought : A study on Purulia district, West Bengal, India

Raha

Gayen

2021

JANS

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Drought is a burning issue in India and hence needs serious attention of researchers to develop rigorous plan and management. Areas that belong to various plateaus, e.g., Chottanagpur plateau, Deccan plateau, etc., are mostly affected by drought in India. In the past decade, Purulia District of West Bengal, which belongs to northeast part of Chottanagpur plateau, faced severe drought several times. But the assessment of drought in this area was far from a decesive proclamation till date. In this research, an attempt was made to compare the Holt-Winter additive and Holt-Winter multiplicative model in simulation (at 1 month lead time) of meteorological drought (using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of Purulia District, West Bengal, India. The additive model showed better performance than the multiplicative model with minimized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficient value (R2). The spatial assessment drought at pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon phase indicated that severe drought had occurred in post monsoon and premonsoon phase at the eastern portions of the study area.

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“…Belirlenen kriterlerin çoğunda HWÜD yöntemi başarılı sonuçlar gösterdiği gözlemlenmiştir [19]. Bunların dışında bankaların altın rezervlerinin incelenmesi [20], doğal gaz talep tahmini [16,21], giyim endüstrisi talep tahmini [22], sosyal güvenliğin önemli değişkenlerinin analizi [23], su tüketimi tahmini [24], mobil ağalar için trafik tahmini [25], döviz kuru değişimlerini inceleme [26] daha birçok alanda çalışma yapılmıştır.…”

Section: Literatür çAlışmasıunclassified

Elektrik Yükünün Genetik Algoritma Temelli Holt-Winters Üstel Düzeltme Yönteminiyle Tahmini

Özger¹,

Akpınar

Musayev³

et al. 2019

Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences

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Energy planning has become important in developing countries and growing economies. The balance between energy production and consumption is based on good planning. The basis of the planning lies in high accuracy estimation, where time series techniques are often used. The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, which is one of the time series techniques and includes seasonality, was used in this study. In the study, genetic algorithm method was used to determine the parameters in Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) method and electrical load forecasts were made by using these parameters. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) was used as the optimization target function in parameter determination. The parameters determined by genetic algorithm were generated with 200 monthly data on a monthly basis and 12 month load values were used in the estimation. MAPE, MAD and MPE errors were shown in the study and the proposed approach was found to be suitable for the estimation of electrical load.

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Forecasting of Water Consumptions Expenditure Using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA

Cited by 16 publications

References 10 publications

Intelligent System Stability using Type-2 Fuzzy Controller

Intelligent System Stability using Type-2 Fuzzy Controller

Comparative study of different exponential smoothing models in simulation of meteorological drought : A study on Purulia district, West Bengal, India

Elektrik Yükünün Genetik Algoritma Temelli Holt-Winters Üstel Düzeltme Yönteminiyle Tahmini

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