Forecasting of Volatility in Stock Exchange Markets by MS-Garch Approach: an Application of Borsa Istanbul

Abstract

The volatility observed in securities markets has an important influence on the decision making processes of stock market stakeholders. In this study, the volatilities in BIST100 index which represents Borsa Istanbul was analyzed. For this purpose, BIST100 index closing data for the period of 03.01.1988-20.04.2018 was used in the study. The BIST100 index was analyzed by Markov regime switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) with three regimes, standard, high and low volatility regimes. As a result of the triple regime MS-GARCH intensive analysis, the existence of endogenous regimens was determined, in which the regime coefficients considered for the index were statistically significant. When the possibilities of regime transitions are analyzed, it is determined that the probability of continuing the standard volatility regime is 0.62, the probability of transition to low volatility regime is 0.23 and the probability of transition to high volatility regime is 0.145. Moreover, it was determined that the possibilities of regime passage in 5 and 20 days are very close to each other.