Forecasting of recurrent atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency ablation of pulmonary veins using preoperative characteristics

Abstract

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent arrhythmia. The method of catheter radiofrequency ablation (CRA) of pulmonary veins (PV) does not guarantee the preservation of sinus rhythm. Determination of predictors of AF relapses dictates the need in systemic approach taking into account demographic and clinical-instrumental characteristics of patients. Objective. Determination of preoperative predictors of AF recurrence within 3 year after follow-up CRA PV.Design and methods. The study included 89 patients (50 men, 39 women; mean age 58 and 62 years respectively) followed during 3 years after CRA PV. The methods of principal components and discriminant analysis were used for analytical purposes. Results. The recurrence of AF was observed in 43 patients (48 %): during the first year — in 18 (43 %), during the second — in 16 (37 %), during the third — in 9 (20 %) cases. By consistently using the methods of descriptive and multivariant statistics a set of the preoperative indicators has been identified that distinguishes patients with AF relapses undergone CRA PV. It consists of the longivity of AF, the state of contractive myocardial function, the presence of ICD, cardioversion in the past and thyroid pathology. The contribution of modified risk factors: SBP level, BMI, tobacco smoking also are valued. Conclusion. Using of multivariant statistics allows to determine preoperative characteristics, which provide optimization of management of patients with AF.