Forecasting of Parameters of Human Capital Development in Agriculture in Voronezh Oblast

Abstract

The purpose of the research was to forecast the parameters of human capital development in agriculture in Voronezh Oblast. In line with this objective the authors developed a long-term forecast of the total and rural population, and used the methods of economic and mathematical modeling to substantiate the promising parameters of human capital development in agriculture of the region by economic entities (agricultural enterprises and peasant farm enterprises). The performed research allowed determining the priorities for organizing the structure of economic activities, whereas reaching the design parameters will create the conditions for efficient economic activities, as well as for obtaining a greater mass of profit sufficient for expanded reproduction. Moreover, the use of a block mathematical economic model allows a multivariate determination of the optimal parameters of the number of workers employed in agricultural production. For instance, the forecast of rural population shows a decrease in both the total population and the number of workers employed in agricultural production with a simultaneous decrease in total rural population and working-age population. Prospective changes in the structure of the population predetermine a positive trend in the development of agricultural sector in Voronezh Oblast. Keywordshuman capital; reproduction of human capital;mathematical economic modeling; block-diagonal structure; forecast of rural population.

Concept of human capital in the context of innovative development and its place in the system of related economic categories

“…Человеческий потенциал переходит в человеческий капитал и вносит свою лепту в экономическое развитие страны в соответствии с определенными условиями. Если человеческий потенциал включает все сформированные реальные стремления, таланты и способности человека вне зависимости от того, используются ли они и приносят ли прибыль в настоящем или будущем, то человеческий капитал включает строго ту их часть, которая используется и приносит доход [11].…”