Forecasting of monsoon performance over India

Bhalme, H. N.; Jadhav, S. K.; Mooley, D. A.; Murty, Bh. V. Ramana

doi:10.1002/joc.3370060402

Cited by 34 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Regarding latitudes further south, Quinn and Neal (1983) mention that the prominent ENSO-related rainfall departures are primarily confined to the Chilean subtropics, and that at times, stations near 40°S latitude register these changes, but to a lesser degree. For India, relationships were reported with Eurasian snow cover (Hahn and Shukla, 1976;Dey and Bhanukumar, 1983), the state of the troposphere at middle and upper levels (Bhalme et al, 1986), stratospheric wind quasi-biennial oscillation (Bhalme et al, 1987 and references therein), and latitudinal location of the axis of the 500 hPa ridge along 75°E (Krishna and references therein). For Australia, a relationship was found with SST in the Indonesian region and Central Indian Ocean (Streten, 1983;Nicholls, 1989).…”

Section: Relationship With Factors Other Than Ensomentioning

confidence: 95%

Rainfall extremes in some selected parts of Central and South America: ENSO and other relationships reexamined

Kane

1999

Int. J. Climatol.

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Section: Relationship With Factors Other Than Ensomentioning

confidence: 95%

Rainfall extremes in some selected parts of Central and South America: ENSO and other relationships reexamined

Kane

1999

Int. J. Climatol.

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“…One of the earliest scientifically based schemes is that of India's Meteorological Department, which has been issuing predictions for the all-India monsoon rainfall since the late nineteenth century using various statistical methods (Blanford 1884; Walker 1923;Bhalme et al 1986). One of the more recent developments is the regular production of seasonal climate forecasts that are based, at least in part, on global dynamical climate models [e.g., the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the IRI'S “Net Assessment” Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997–2001

Goddard¹,

Barnston²,

Mason³

2003

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

148

122

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Overall, the IRI seasonal climate forecasts outperform the atmospheric general circulation models and ENSO-based empirical predictions on which they are based. Predictions of seasonal climate anomalies have been made in some form for centuries. One of the earliest scientifically based schemes is that of India's Meteorological Department, which has been issuing predictions for the all-India monsoon rainfall since the late nineteenth century using various statistical methods (Blanford 1884; Walker 1923;Bhalme et al. 1986). One of the more recent developments is the regular production of seasonal climate forecasts that are based, at least in part, on global dynamical climate models [e.g., the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) . These forecasts are the subjective assessment and consolidation of many climate prediction tools, and are thus called "net assessments." They provided probabilistic forecasts for below-, near-, and abovenormal precipitation and temperature for the upcoming 3-month period and the subsequent 3-month period (more information available online at http:// irj.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net__asmt/). Since mid-2001, however, the IRI has issued these forecasts monthly for the upcoming four overlapping seasons.sinceValidation studies of the prediction tools used by various meteorological centers suggest that they can provide potentially useful information on seasonal climate variability for many parts of the world. For many regions physical dynamical models replicate, and in some cases improve upon, the skill realized from empirical statistical models, and this has given greater credibility to seasonal predictions obtained by both approaches. Thus, regional managers in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water resources have a 25%-40% probability of extremely above-normal rainfall, which we define as an approximate doubling of risk over the climatologically expected 15% probability. This validation study concerns only the threecategory forecasts.Although the majority of the constituent prediction tools for the IRI net assessments are objective, the 1 Reliability refers to the correspondence between the probabilities given in the forecasts and the subsequent relative frequencies of occurrence in the observations. For reliable forecasts, these two quantities are equal (see Wilks 1995;Murphy 1993Murphy , 1997.2 Where no region is explicitly designated, a forecast for climatological probabilities is implied. For precipitation, explicit forecasts are also not issued for "dry regions," which are indicated. Over these areas the climatological rainfall is so low (less than 30 mm over the 3-month season) that the below-normal category cannot be well distinguished from the near-normal category. | BAI1S-DECEMBER 2003subjective element of human intervention is not negligible as they are combined to arrive at the final forecast product. Recent improvements to the IRI forecast system have greatly reduced the amount of subjective work necessary to produce the net assessments (Barnston et al. 2003). More objective appr...

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“…It is clear that, whereas Australian summer monsoon rainfalls have no significant impact on succeeding Indian summer monsoon rainfalls, the atmospheric circulation conditions that influence the intensity of the Indian summer monsoon (Bhalme et aL, 1986) lead to circulation modifications elsewhere that in turn affect Queensland especially (AR1 and AR2) during its following summer monsoon season. These conditions are further affected by circulation results related to changes in sea-surface temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean in the season between the two summer monsoons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Interrelationships between Indian and northern Australian summer monsoon rainfall values

Gregory

1991

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Relationships between both the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the northern Australian summer monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation have been studied previously, and Indian conditions related to Darwin pressure trends, but relationships between the rainfall conditions of the two areas have not been studied. This was effected in terms of generalized regional rainfall values for JuncSeptember for 10 Indian regions and December-March for four Australian regions. Preceding Australian conditions had virtually no significant correlation with succeeding Indian conditions, but these Indian conditions did show significant correlations with many succeeding Australian regional values. These were examined in terms of simple correlation, quintile tabulation, and multiple correlation and regression, and the more significant relationships were extended further by considering generalized sea-surface temperature conditions as well. Resultant relationships were evaluated in terms of the 10 years that follow the period of analysis.

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Forecasting of monsoon performance over India

Cited by 34 publications

References 16 publications

Rainfall extremes in some selected parts of Central and South America: ENSO and other relationships reexamined

Rainfall extremes in some selected parts of Central and South America: ENSO and other relationships reexamined

Evaluation of the IRI'S “Net Assessment” Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997–2001

Interrelationships between Indian and northern Australian summer monsoon rainfall values

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