Forecasting of a Lifecycle of the Projects of Production of Biofuel Raw Materials With Consideration of Risks

Tryhuba, Anatoliy; Boyarchuk, Vitalij; Тryhuba, Inna; Ftoma, Oksana

doi:10.1109/atit49449.2019.9030492

Cited by 16 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…If there is such a configuration option for integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems, in which it is possible to significantly increase the efficiency of their implementation, the changes made are approved and a report on the configuration status of these projects is carried out. If the changes made to the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems are not approved, the control center reconsiders the need to make changes to it (Tryhuba et al, 2020). Functionality (F) is the ability of a configuration object to meet current requirements for the functions assigned to it.…”

Section: Independent Journal Of Management and Production (Ijmandp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Peculiarities of Implementation of Configuration Control Processes of Integrated and Innovative Projects of Logistics System Creation

Тryhuba

Ivanyshyn

Чабан

et al. 2021

Ind. Jour. Manag. & Prod.

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The analysis of the current scientific and methodological principles of project management is performed. It is established that the existing models and methods cannot be used to control the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems. The known toolkit provides general approaches to controlling the configuration of projects and does not take into account many factors of the design environment, which determine changes in the configuration of integrated projects for creating logistics systems. It has been substantiated that changes in the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems are due to two groups of factors. They can be assessed by four criteria based on the determination of two generalized evaluative characteristics of the influence of the factors of the design environment on changes in the configuration objects of these projects. The scientific and methodological foundations of the configuration control of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems are proposed, taking into account the changing components of their design environment. To control the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems, the use of project management theory and system-factor principles is envisaged, which fully take into account the peculiarities of the implementation of these projects. Based on the proposed model, the impact of internal environment factors of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems on changes in the configuration object No. 4.1 (a specialized tank truck for transporting perishable goods) was assessed. Significance coefficients are defined for each of the assigned codes (evaluation criteria and factors that determine the configuration changes) of the configuration objects of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems. Their numerical value is in the range 0…1 and it characterizes the significance of each of the factors for a particular object of the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems. Quantitative assessment of the impact of design environment factors on changes in the configuration of integrated projects for the creation of logistics systems is carried out on a 100-point scale.

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Section: Independent Journal Of Management and Production (Ijmandp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Peculiarities of Implementation of Configuration Control Processes of Integrated and Innovative Projects of Logistics System Creation

Тryhuba

Ivanyshyn

Чабан

et al. 2021

Ind. Jour. Manag. & Prod.

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“…In order to determine the variable costs of resources for the implementation of projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, a well-known simulation model is used [12]. This model represents the performance of works in these projects, taking into account the characteristics of production conditions of the project environment (field area and projected wheat yield, distance of delivery of resources for growing wheat, etc.)…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Substantiation of the model of investor's profits of projects of production of raw materials for bioethanol is carried out on the basis of a composition of separate normal laws of distribution [12]. In this case, the random amount of profit (P r ) of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol will also be describe by the normal distribution law.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This variability is due to changes in the natural and climatic conditions of the region, which are taken into account during this modeling. Based on the specified data with use of Equations (12) and (13) the model of investor's profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol is proved. On the basis of this model and using Equations (14)- (16), a quantitative assessment of the risk of investor's profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol is performed.…”

Section: Figure 2 Theoretical Curves Of the Amount Of Investments Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Investors' profits depend on the changing project environment, which in turn causes risk. Potential investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol at the planning stage want to know the risk of predicted profit on investments [12][13][14]. During the determining the effectiveness of investments in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, it is necessary to assess this risk for a given project environment [15][16][17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Risk Assessment of Investments in Projects of Production of Raw Materials for Bioethanol

et al. 2020

Self Cite

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The proposed approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of investor’s profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol involves the implementation of eight stages. It systematically takes into account the stochastic nature of many factors that determine the amount of investments in the project, as well as the stochastic nature of the market value of raw materials. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate assessment of the level of risk of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, taking into account the requirements of investors. Based on the use of the developed application software, stochastic models of profit of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol and patterns of changes in their risk for the Western region of Ukraine are obtained. It is established that with the growth of the minimum expected profit of investors of projects from 10 to 70$/ton, the probability of its receipt varies from 0.89 to 0.34. According to a reasonable scale, the level of risk of making a profit by investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol from wheat varies from acceptable to high.

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The Method and Results of Agreement of Configurations of the Integrated Projects on Agro-Industrial Production

Tryhuba

Boyarchuk

Тryhuba

et al. 2020

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

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Forecasting of a Lifecycle of the Projects of Production of Biofuel Raw Materials With Consideration of Risks

Cited by 16 publications

References 14 publications

Peculiarities of Implementation of Configuration Control Processes of Integrated and Innovative Projects of Logistics System Creation

Peculiarities of Implementation of Configuration Control Processes of Integrated and Innovative Projects of Logistics System Creation

Risk Assessment of Investments in Projects of Production of Raw Materials for Bioethanol

The Method and Results of Agreement of Configurations of the Integrated Projects on Agro-Industrial Production

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