Forecasting Neighborhood Change

Smith, Wallace F.

doi:10.2307/3144367

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…One of the earliest reformulations of the invasion/ succession approach, as introduced by Hoyt and expanded upon by others, was the idea of filtering (Hoyt 1933;Smith 1963). Filtering models explain neighborhood change as a function of decisions made by landlords, ultimately affecting the desirability of a community's housing stock relative to newly built housing.…”

Section: Filteringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neighborhood Change and Urban Policy

Temkin¹,

Rohe²

1996

Journal of Planning Education and Research

134

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The process of neighborhood change, to date, has not been analyzed from a multidisciplinary theoretical perspective. As consensus grows that one's neighborhood plays a large role in determining access to education, employment, and an improved quality of life (Anderson 1991; Galster and Hill 1992;Wilson 1987), it is unfortunate that our understanding of neighborhood change remains a prisoner of intellectual parochialism. A review of the literature indicates that scholars of neighborhood change tend to focus on variables which are easily analyzed within a single discipline's paradigm (Birch 1971; Bond and Coulson 1989;Hoover and Vernon 1959;Muth 1973). Economists, for example, often concentrate on the declining amount of capital stock embedded in a housing unit over time (Henderson 1985). Sociologists often stress a neighborhood's changing functional role within a larger urban area's system (Berry and Kasarda 1977). Geographers model neighborhood change as a spatial process, and so study border effects and other spatially related phenomena (Bailey 1959, Deskin 1981. Although separate disciplines have made significant contributions to our understanding of neighborhood change, calls for a multidisciplinary approach (Schwab 1987) have largely gone unheeded.Our goals, then, are to present a synthetic model of neighborhood change and to explore the implications of that model for neighborhood stabilization, upgrading, and deconcentration policies. Throughout this paper we assume a rather broad definition of neighborhood change which encompasses a variety of objectively measurable changes to a neighborhood's physical and social environment. Unlike previous models of neighborhood change, the theoretical framework developed here demonstrates how neighborhood change is not the result of seemingly inexorable ecological forces, nor is it solely a function of economically motivated individuals and institutions acting either alone or in concert. Over a given period of time, neighborhoods within a single city can follow one of three trajectories: stability, decline, or upgrading. We argue that a neighborhood's trajectory results from its ability to position itself favorably with external sources of financial, political, and social resources and that this ability is largely dependent on the physical, social, and locational characteristics of the community. Consequently, neighborhood stabilization policies that exclusively concentrate on the physical characteristics of a community (housing stock, commercial establishments, etc.) are likely to be ineffective, as they do not enhance a neighborhood's access to the resources needed to maintain a stable and attractive residential environment. Similarly, efforts designed to strengthen a community's political power via promoting either horizontal and/or vertical integration (Rohe and Mouw 1991 ; Warren and Warren 1977) may not be enough to forestall neighborhood decline if physical deterioration is an everyday concern of neighborhood residents. ABSTRACTTheories of neighborhood change have...

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Section: Filteringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neighborhood Change and Urban Policy

Temkin¹,

Rohe²

1996

Journal of Planning Education and Research

134

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“…Land use planning and public policies explain the external factors regulating the evolution of neighborhoods and construe the political economy of neighborhood change (Temkin and Rohe 1996). Neighborhood characteristics, aggregated from characteristics of individual residents, manifest the dimension of ecological and sub-cultural theory of neighborhood change (Burgess 1925, Hoyt 1933, Smith 1963, Sweeney 1974, Birch 1971, Rothenberg et al 1991. The outcomes of external and internal factors determining neighborhood characteristics and changes helped shape the geography of opportunities and the distribution of subprime lending and foreclosures.…”

Section: Subprime Lending and Mortgage Foreclosurementioning

confidence: 99%

Geography of Opportunity and Residential Mortgage Foreclosure: A Spatial Analysis of a U.S. Housing Market

Li¹

2020

JURA

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South Florida has been among the top foreclosure markets in the United States, but little research has explored whether this market presents different dynamics compared to other metropolitan areas. This research chooses Broward County to explore whether socioeconomic characteristics and certain public policy instruments relate to subprime lending and mortgage foreclosure patterns. Results indicate areas bounded by linear highways and railroads have a concentration of low-income black population and subprime loans. The spatial distribution of subprime loans is mostly explained by a higher percentage of minority and/or Hispanic population in a neighborhood. Yet, racial minorities, instead of Hispanic origin, contributes mostly to the concentration of subprime loans. The spatial pattern of foreclosures is more complex, determined not only by subprime loans but also possibly other factors associated with the mortgage crisis. This suggests that disadvantaged neighborhoods are disproportionally lacking favorable opportunities due to institutional and sub- cultural forces shaping the geography of subprime and foreclosure.

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Toward a Stage Theory of Urban Growth

Birch¹

1971

Journal of the American Institute of Planners

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Forecasting Neighborhood Change

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Neighborhood Change and Urban Policy

Neighborhood Change and Urban Policy

Geography of Opportunity and Residential Mortgage Foreclosure: A Spatial Analysis of a U.S. Housing Market

Toward a Stage Theory of Urban Growth

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