Forecasting natural hazards, performance of scientists, ethics, and the need for transparency

Abstract

Landslides are one of several natural hazards. As other natural hazards, landslides are difficult to predict, and their forecasts are uncertain. The uncertainty depends on the poor understanding of the phenomena that control the slope failures, and on the inherent complexity and chaotic nature of the landslides. This is similar to other natural hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts. Due to the severe impact of landslides on the population, the environment, and the economy, forecasting landslides is of scientific interest and of societal relevance, and scientists attempting to forecast landslides face known and new problems intrinsic to the multifaceted interactions between science, decision-making, and the society. The problems include deciding on the authority and reliability of individual scientists and groups of scientists, and evaluating the performances of individual scientists, research teams, and their institutions. Related problems lay in the increasing subordination of research scientists to politics and decision-makers, and in the conceptual and operational models currently used to organize and pay for research, based on apparently objective criteria and metrics, considering science as any other human endeavor, and favoring science that produces results of direct and immediate application. The paper argues that the consequences of these problems have not been considered fully.

Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model

“…In the case of the 21 September 1990 rainstorm, the infinite slope stability analysis of the r.slope.stability model using planar shallow failure surfaces shows a better performance than the analysis using an ellipsoidal failure surface. The results obtained show that the failure geometry is most appropriately approximated by shallow planar surfaces, which is confirmed by the reference information: Even though Hermelin et al (1992) and Garcia (1995) mentioned that both shallow and deepseated landslides were observed after the studied rainfall event, Velásquez and Mejía (1991) underlined the dominance of shallow landslides. This also agrees with the type of landslides often triggered by short, heavy rainfall events causing a rapid increase in pore pressure (Crosta, 1998).…”

“…The strong rainfall in the catchment, imposed upon general saturation of the soils in rugged topography, triggered a series of almost simultaneous rotational and translational landslides in the catchment (Hermelin et al, 1992;Garcia, 1995). A total of 699 landslides were identified and mapped in the La Arenosa catchment.…”

“…The population was strongly affected: 20 fatalities were counted and 260 people had to be evacuated, 27 houses were destroyed and 30 damaged and several bridges were also damaged or destroyed (Hermelin et al, 1992;Aris-tizábal et al, 2016). Total loss was estimated to be more than USD 6 million.…”

Review on Perception and Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers’ to Climate Change in Ethiopia

“…"The vulnerability of the community is aggravated due to the long standing environmental problems of forest destruction that leads to land degradation.Further more, about 70 % of the country is dry, sub-humid, semi-arid or arid and in consequence vulnerable to desertification and environmental degradation"(Weldlul 2016). Generally; Many studies have estimated the future climate and investigated how this influences vulnerability" (Baca et al, 2014, Bouroncle et al, 2017 .However, fewer attempts have been made to also project the future societal adaptive capacity, as indicators are often difficult to estimate and uncertain" (Adger et al, 2004, Sherbinin et al, 2014.Similarly,levels of uncertainty hinder confidence in the estimations of natural exposure)which are unstable and chaotic by nature (Guzzetti, 2016).…”

Assessment of data availability for the development of landslide fatality curves

“…In contrast to other natural hazards (e.g., floods or earthquakes), which affect large areas, landslides are generally limited in area but can occur with a high frequency in a specific region (JRC 2011). Landslides can be caused by both natural and anthropogenic actions, and landslide disasters are increasing worldwide (Andersson-Sköld et al 2014;Guzzetti 2016;Ho et al 2013;Nadim et al 2006;SOU 2007). The reasons are suspected to be increased susceptibility of surface soil to instability because of deforestation and overexploration of natural resources, greater vulnerability of exposed population as a result of urbanization and uncontrolled land use, and climate change resulting in a greater potential for weather extremes (Lacasse et al 2010;Nadim et al 2006).…”