Forecasting Monthly Runoff Time Series by Single-Layer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network and Grey Wolf Optimizer

Abstract

Generally, accurate hydrological forecasting information plays an increasingly important role in promoting the comprehensive benefit of hydropower reservoirs. With satisfying generalization ability and search rate, the extreme learning machine (ELM), a famous single-layer feedforward neural network, has been widely used to address regression and classification problem. However, the standard ELM method often falls into second-best solutions with a high probability due to the random assignments of network parameters. In order to overcome this problem, this paper aims at developing a hybrid model for monthly runoff time series forecasting. In the hybrid method, an effective swarm intelligence method, grey wolf optimizer (GWO), is adopted to optimize the input-hidden weights and hidden biases of the ELM method; and then the Moore-Penrose generalized inverse method is adopted to determine the hidden-output weights. The world's largest hydropower reservoir, Three Gorges, is chosen to compare the performances of various forecasting methods. Based on the simulation results, the presented method outperforms several traditional forecasting methods (like artificial neural network and support vector machine) in several quantitative indexes. Thus, a novel alternative is presented to predict the nonlinear hydrological time series in China. INDEX TERMS Hydrologic forecasting, grey wolf optimizer, extreme learning machine; artificial neural network

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