Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count

Nowosad, Jakub; Stach, Alicja; Kasprzyk, Idalia; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Piotrowska-Weryszko, Krystyna; Puc, Małgorzata; Grewling, Łukasz; Pędziszewska, Anna; Uruska, A.; Myszkowska, Dorota; Chłopek, Kazimiera; Majkowska-Wojciechowska, Barbara

doi:10.1007/s10453-015-9418-y

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…The data presented in this paper are important for accurate tree and grass pollen allergy forecasting and control of the ragweed season. This suggestion is in agreement with recent studies which support the possibility of using past pollen count data from monitoring sites for predicting particular days with high pollen concentrations [44].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This author reported that a certain temperature accumulative threshold is needed for an increase in tree pollen concentration. This suggestion on the impact of heat accumulation on the pollen season [44,45] is supported by our present research. For example, the birch season onset is considered to coincide with an accumulation of about 70°C degree-days above a 3.5°C threshold [45].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…However, no clear correlation was seen between the temperatures in June, when birch buds develop, and birch pollen season intensity during the season in the following year, as was reported by Grewling et al [43]. No or little influence of the mean temperature in the preceding year on the annual Betula pollen sum was also found by Nowosad [44]. This author reported that a certain temperature accumulative threshold is needed for an increase in tree pollen concentration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

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Seasonal changes in plant pollen concentrations over recent years in Vinnytsya, Central Ukraine

et al. 2018

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The control of plant pollen season patterns is especially important in the expectation of climate change, as the timing of potential varying pollen seasons affects the human population. An ever-increasing number of people suffer from hay fever symptoms with varying severity during the pollen season. This paper presents data on the seasonal variations of pollen concentration and the factors which are the likely causes of these variations in Vinnytsya, a city in Central Ukraine, in order to establish the apparent pattern of this variation and so improve the efficiency of hay fever control in Ukraine.Pollen counts were obtained by gravimetric and volumetric methods employing a Hirst-type volumetric spore trap.Alder (Alnus) and birch (Betula) peaks of pollen release occurred approximately 1 month earlier than was observed at the end of the twentieth century. This was due to the seasonal heat accumulation related to the appropriate temperature regimen registered in January and February prior to the growing season. Other trees – including poplar (Populus), maple (Acer), walnut (Juglans), common hazel (Corylus) – did not show distinct changes in pollen season pattern over the past decades.Mean daily temperature seems to be the leading factor promoting early season onset and a seasonal pollen peak shift of the grass and herb flora such as ragweed (Ambrosia). The shift of the ragweed seasonal pollen maximum towards later in the season correlated with higher temperatures during September. Our study has shown that droughts may also significantly decrease the ragweed pollen concentration.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

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Seasonal changes in plant pollen concentrations over recent years in Vinnytsya, Central Ukraine

et al. 2018

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“…Prediction of high birch pollen concentrations is very important, as birch pollen have a significant impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Prediction models, for example, can allow allergy sufferers to undertake the appropriate treatment (Nowosad 2015 ; Nowosad et al 2016 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling—a case study for Poland

et al. 2020

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In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen allergens have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialized countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly life. In this study, we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model’s performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m−3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m−3) with probability of detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and success ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model’s performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air.

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Statistical techniques for modeling of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration in the air

et al. 2018

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Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count

Cited by 8 publications

References 29 publications

Seasonal changes in plant pollen concentrations over recent years in Vinnytsya, Central Ukraine

Seasonal changes in plant pollen concentrations over recent years in Vinnytsya, Central Ukraine

Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling—a case study for Poland

Statistical techniques for modeling of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration in the air

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