Forecasting Methane Emissions from Hard Coal Mines Including the Methane Drainage Process

Abstract

With regard to underground mining, methane is a gas that, on the one hand, poses a threat to the exploitation process and, on the other hand, creates an opportunity for economic development. As a result of coal exploitation, large amounts of coal enter the natural environment mainly through ventilation systems. Since methane is a greenhouse gas, its emission has a significant impact on global warming. Nevertheless, methane is also a high-energy gas that can be utilized as a very valuable energy resource. These different properties of methane prompted an analysis of both the current and the future states of methane emissions from coal seams, taking into account the possibilities of its use. For this reason, the following article presents the results of the study of methane emissions from Polish hard coal mines between 1993–2018 and their forecast until 2025. In order to predict methane emissions, research methodology was developed based on artificial neural networks and selected statistical methods. The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network was used to make a prognostic model. The aim of the study was to develop a method to predict methane emissions and determine trends in terms of the amount of methane that may enter the natural environment in the coming years and the amount that can be used as a result of the methane drainage process. The methodology developed with the use of neural networks, the conducted research, and the findings constitute a new approach in the scope of both analysis and prediction of methane emissions from hard coal mines. The results obtained confirm that this methodology works well in mining practice and can also be successfully used in other industries to forecast greenhouse gas and other substance emissions.

The Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Analyze Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions from the Mining and Quarrying Sector in the European Union

“…Methane emitted into the atmosphere can survive for 9 to 15 years. Poland is an infamous leader in the field of methane emissions, and only about 35% of this gas is captured by methane drainage systems [15]. In Germany, on the other hand, various technological solutions are utilized to minimize the impact of methane emissions on the surrounding atmosphere.…”

“…However, only about 30% of this gas is recognized and used for business purposes. Poland is the largest emitter of methane from mining operations in the EU, as well as throughout Europe [15,37,38]. In turn, Germany, in terms of When analyzing the distribution of the EU countries on the topological map, it can be seen that the countries from cluster 2 (Germany, Poland, UK) show the largest internal differentiation, and the countries from cluster 1 (e.g., Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland) and 3 (the Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, and Sweden) show the greatest similarity.…”

“…However, only about 30% of this gas is recognized and used for business purposes. Poland is the largest emitter of methane from mining operations in the EU, as well as throughout Europe [15,37,38]. In turn, Germany, in terms of the emissions of this gas from the mining and quarrying sector, ranks 4 (after Romania and the Czech Republic).…”

“…2 of 31 However, dynamic socio-economic development increases the demand for energy and mineral resources used in virtually all sectors of the economy [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Unfortunately, in most cases, the exploitation of these raw materials is associated with a very negative impact on the environment [11][12][13][14][15]. In the context of the idea of sustainable development and the European Green Deal strategy, the mining industry, among other sectors, should try to limit its negative impact on the environment.…”

“…By contrast, Heinrich et al [54] assessed the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions associated with manganese nodule mining operation. A paper by Tutak and Brodny [15] presents the results of forecasting the volume of methane emissions into the atmosphere from Polish hard coal mines until 2025. In turn, [55] presents a global forecast for methane emissions up to 2100 from hard coal mines.…”