Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators Based on Text Information from Strategic Management Field in Russia

Abstract

The current situation in economic activity is notable for exponential increase in accessible e-information and serious interest in its use in order to get competitive advantages. The article studies influence of information published in mass media on the essential social and economic indicators, which show key concepts of the system of strategic management in Russia. Methodological basis of the research was formed by theories of cognitive, topical modeling and regressive analysis. In the investigation the author used methods of topical modeling, machine education and statistical analysis of data. The author put forward the procedure of automated plotting of the cause-and-effect diagram based on qualitative and quantitative data. The system of causal links between key concepts of the system gave a chance to build forecast models of high accuracy. Findings of the research showed that topics being highlighted in mass media can influence social and economic indicators. Unfortunately, accidental events can make mathematic models, relying on system inertia, inadequate. In theoretical aspect the article proposes the procedure of automated building of the cause-and-effect diagram based on heterogeneous data, which can eliminate the problem of subjectivity of expert estimations in plotting cognitive maps. In applied aspect models of forecasting the most important social and economic indicators based on mass media publications were worked out that lean against cause-and-effect diagram and can support well-grounded managerial decisions and in case of necessity can affect the situation.