Forecasting Low Stream Flow Rate Using Monte—Carlo Simulation of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece

Abstract

A small number of scientific research studies with reference to extremely low flow conditions, have been conducted in Greece, so far. Predicting future low stream flow rate values is an essential and of paramount importance task when compiling watershed and drought management plans, designing water reservoirs and general hydraulic works capacity, calculating hydrological and drought low flow values, separating groundwater base flow and storm flow of storm hydrographs etc. The Monte-Carlo simulation method generates multiple attempts to define the anticipated value of a random (hydrological in this specific case) variable. The present study compiles, correspondingly, artificial low stream flow time series of both the same part of the year (2016) as well as a part of the calendar year (2017), based on the stream flow data observed during the same two different interval periods of the years 2016 and 2017, using a 3-inches U.S.G.S. modified portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches conventional portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches portable Montana (short Parshall) flume and a 90° V-notched triangular shaped sharp crested portable weir plate. The recorded data were plotted against the fitted one and the results were demonstrated through interactive tables providing us the ability to effectively evaluate the simulation procedure performance. Finally, we plot the observed against the calculated low stream flow rate data, compiling a log-log scale chart which provides a better visualization of the discrepancy ratio statistical performance metric and calculate statistics featuring the comparison between the recorded and the forecasted low stream flow rate data.

Artificial Neural Network for Daily Low Stream Flow Rate Prediction of Iokastis Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin

“…Furthermore, as far as the same gauging station, (Perigiali Stream watershed outlet), a similar type of analysis was elaborated considering, this time, the observed data collected at the same gauging station between 14 May 2016 and 29 August 2016, revealing that Wakeby type (5P) demonstrated the highest final goodness-of-fit obtained score based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit criterion and employed to generate an artificial low flow time series for the same time interval [4,5]. The Monte-Carlo simulation method, as another type of low flow analysis, was employed to define, by generating multiple attempts, the anticipated value of a random (hydrological in the specific case) variable to the above mentioned gauging station, located at the outlet of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin, between 14 May 2016 and 31 July 2016 [6].…”