Forecasting Indian summer monsoon rainfall by outgoing longwave radiation over the Indian Ocean

Prasad, K. D.; Bansod, S. D.; Sabade, S. S.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200001)20:1<105::aid-joc459>3.0.co;2-1

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…On the other hand, the stronger SH insolation in boreal winter and early spring heats the southern Indian Ocean locally (see Figs. 4b,d) but does influence the subsequent Indian summer monsoon through a comparatively longer memory and interhemispheric ocean-atmospheric circulation as Prasad et al (2000) suggested. Second, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon over South Asia (Wang et al 2003a).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Liu

Kutzbach

et al. 2006

Journal of Climate

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Insolation forcing related to the earth's orbital parameters is known to play an important role in regulating variations of the South Asian monsoon on geological time scales. The influence of insolation forcing on the Indian Ocean and Asian monsoon is studied in this paper by isolating the Northern and Southern Hemispheric insolation changes in several numerical experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The focus is on the response of South Asian summer rainfall (monsoon strength) with emphasis on impacts of the local versus remote forcing and possible mechanisms. The model results show that both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer insolation changes affect the Indian Ocean and Asian monsoon as a local forcing (in the same hemisphere), but only the SH changes result in remote (in the other hemisphere) forcing. The NH insolation change has a local and immediate impact on NH summer monsoons from North Africa to South and East Asia, while the SH insolation change has a remote and seasonal-scale delayed effect on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. When the SH insolation is increased from December to April, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the southern tropical Indian Ocean remains high from January to July. The increased SST produces more atmospheric precipitable water over the southern tropical Indian Ocean by promoting evaporation from the ocean. The enhanced precipitable water over the southern Indian Ocean is transported northward to the South Asian monsoon region by the lower-tropospheric mean cross-equatorial flows with the onset of the Asian monsoon increasing precipitable water over South Asia, eventually leading to the increase of Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Thus, these model experiments, while idealized and not fully representing actual orbitally forced insolation changes, confirm the broadscale response of northern monsoons to NH summer insolation increases and also illustrate how SH summer insolation increases can have a delayed influence on the Indian summer monsoon.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Liu

Kutzbach

et al. 2006

Journal of Climate

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“…This may lead to relatively warmer air temperatures over the region (R1 in the present study) resulting in positive TI 1 , favoring the above-normal ISMR, while negative TI 2 may be due to excess cooling in May over R2. Based on Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data, Prasad et al (2000) showed that, when the north Bay of Bengal region (R2 in present study) experiences more convective activities during May, the subsequent ISMR happens to be above normal. Such frequent convective activities induce a sudden drop in temperature and rise in pressure due to descending cold air from aloft.…”

Section: Interannual Variability Of Indices and Ismrmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…The relationship between the temperature anomalies and ISMR should be tested for its stability before using it in prediction of the ISMR, since a recent study by Prasad et al (2000) found that some predictors of the ISMR have been losing the power of prediction of ISMR during recent decades. In order to test the consistency and stability of the relationship between the thermal indices with the ISMR, we have used the 31 years sliding window technique.…”

Section: Stability Of the Relationship Between Ismr And Thermal Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India

Bansod

Ghanekar²

2015

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. In this paper, interannual variability of tropospheric air temperatures over the Asian summer monsoon region during the pre-monsoon months is examined in relation to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September total rainfall). For this purpose, monthly gridpoint temperatures in the entire troposphere over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR data for the period 1949-2012 have been used. Spatial correlation patterns are investigated between the temperature field in the lower tropospheric levels during May over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR. The results indicate a strong and significant northwest-southeast dipole structure in the spatial correlations over the Indian region, with highly significant positive (negative) correlations over the regions of north India and the western Tibetan Plateau region -region R1 (north Bay of Bengal: region R2). The observed dipole is seen significantly up to a level of 850 hPa and eventually disappears at 700 hPa. Thermal indices evaluated at 850 hPa level, based on average air temperatures over the north India and western Tibetan Plateau region (TI 1 ) and the north Bay of Bengal region (TI 2 ) during May, show a strong, significant relationship with the ISMR. The results are found to be consistent and robust, especially in the case of TI 1 during the period of analysis. A physical mechanism for the relationship between these indices and ISMR is proposed. Finally the composite annual cycle of tropospheric air temperature over R1 during flood/drought years of ISMR is examined. The study brings out the importance of the TI 1 in the prediction of flood/drought conditions over the Indian subcontinent.

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“…The relationship between the temperature anomalies and the ISMR should be tested for its stability before using it in prediction of the ISMR, since a recent study by Prasad et al (2000) has found that some predictors of the ISMR lose the power of prediction of ISMR during the recent decade.…”

Section: Stability Of the Relationship Between Ismr And Temperature Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal field over Tibetan Plateau and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Bansod

Yin

Lin

et al. 2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The interannual variability of the temperature anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (25-45°N, 75-105°E) is examined in relation to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR: June to September total rainfall). For this purpose, the temperature anomaly data of the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau is divided into three regions using principal component analysis and the ISMR data for the period 1957-89 have been used. It is found that the January temperature anomaly of Region 2 has a significant negative relationship (r = −0.67) with the ISMR of the subsequent season. This region is located over the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, mostly in Qinghai province, including the Bayan Harr Mountain range and the Qaidam Basin. This relationship is consistent and robust during the period of analysis and can be used to predict the strength of the Indian summer monsoon in the subsequent season. It was found that the January temperature anomaly in this region was associated with a persistent winter circulation pattern over the Eurasian continent during January through to March. Finally, the variation patterns of the temperature anomalies in all three regions over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau during extreme years of the ISMR are examined. It is concluded that the January temperature anomaly over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau can be useful in forecasting the drought and flood conditions over India, especially in predicting the monsoon rainfall over the areas lying along the monsoon trough.

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Forecasting Indian summer monsoon rainfall by outgoing longwave radiation over the Indian Ocean

Cited by 17 publications

References 15 publications

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India

Thermal field over Tibetan Plateau and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

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