Forecasting Hurricane Impact on Coastal Topography

Abstract

Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human‐built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm‐related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

Sedimentary record of storm deposits from Hurricane Ike, Galveston and San Luis Islands, Texas

“…1b,2a). Extrapolation from a nearby storm tide gauge (East et al, 2008;Plant et al, 2010) reveal storm water levels reached approximately 3.7 m (above NAVD88). Elevation of the short-grass prairie/salt-marsh surface along transect varied between 0.75 m and 1.91 m NADV88, reflecting the ridge and swale geomorphology of Galveston Island.…”

“…It is also important to understand the geomorphic response of the coastal zone to tropical cyclones (Plant et al, 2010). Storm surges and wave climates (including wave set-up and swash run-up) associated with tropical cyclones can cause large scale deposition, erosion and/or compaction of sediments and the disruption of vegetated substrates (Morgan et al, 1958;Liu and Fearn, 1993;Nyman et al, 1995;Donnelly et al, 2001;Cahoon, 2006;Sallenger et al, 2006;Turner et al, 2006;van de Plassche et al, 2006;Horton et al, 2009).…”

“…Gray shading off Galveston Island is the measured storm surge height in meters (NOAA probabilistic storm surge forecast at landfall;Plant et al, 2010). Sites A, B, and C are identified as well as USGS storm gauges (black filled squares) and NOAA tide gauges that withstood the storm (black outlined squares).…”

Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy

“…accounted for. Most of the work present in the literature deals with the impact of hurricanes, for recent papers see Wang et al (2006), Robertson et al (2007), Stockdon et al (2007), Houser and Hamilton (2009) and Plant et al (2010). Notable exceptions that concentrate on storms are the "beach erosion potential" of Zhang et al (2001) and the seminal work of Sallenger (2000) in producing a storm impact scale specific for dunes and barrier-islands.…”

Hurricane signatures and landforms—toward improved interpretations and global storm climate chronology

“…Flotsam debris attached to West Ship Island Light Tower in Mississippi registered extreme~+ 10.5-11.0 m flooding level during the landfall of enormously destructive and widespread Katrina, a high-Category 3 hurricane (updated field data and Otvos and Carter, 2008). Category 4 Hurricane Charley (2004) produced only 1.8-2.4 m flooding at landfall, while Category 2 Ike reached 4.5-6.0 m surge levels (NOAA, 2010;Plant et al, 2010).…”