Forecasting Grain Production and Static Capacity of Warehouses Using the Natural Neighbor and Multiquadric Equations

Abstract

The strategic logistics of agricultural production and storage aggregates information related to production and storage. In this sense, time, location, and distance from producer and consumer markets are considered, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and production logistics. The Natural Neighbor and multiquadric equation are spatial interpolation methods used to predict these variables value at non-sampled locations, for asymmetric and categorical data, respectively. This study investigated the spatial prediction of grain production (tons) (soybean, first crop corn, second-crop corn, and wheat) in the 2016/2017 growing season and qualitative data on the static capacity of warehouses in the 2017/2018 growing season. The result obtained through the spatial interpolation using the natural neighbor method was coherent, as it showed the high variability of grain production relative to the different meso-regions. Therefore, the method was appropriate because it allowed predicting the behavior of grain production in the 2016/2017 growing season in the state of Paraná-Brazil, making it possible to identify regions of higher or lower production. The result of the spatial interpolation using the multiquadric equations allowed identifying a higher predominance of storage units with a low static capacity of warehouses, but also enabled the detection of regions with a static capacity of warehouses that varied from the medium to the high category in the state of Paraná, Brazil.

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