Forecasting Food Innovations with a Delphi Study

Abstract

Food innovations can create novel nutritious food, improve agricultural sustainability, and increase the agri-food industry’s market profits. Our study proposes a consensus definition of food innovations and forecasts food innovations that will be available to consumers in the next five years by using a Delphi study. Thirteen experts aged 35 to 85 from the US and the UK researching or working in agriculture and nutrition, public health, the agri-food industry, or food policy participated in three rounds of this Delphi study. The experts were chosen using the snowball sampling method. This study followed the implementation and data analysis guidelines popularized by the Rand Corporation. The consensus definition for food innovations (with 76.9% agreement) was that ‘food innovations aid in the development, production, or transportation of new food products, processes, or technology to promote human health, food security, or environmental sustainability’. The specific food innovations, which had over 69% agreement, are ranked as (1) plant-based meat alternatives, (2) personalized nutrition, (3) natural foods, (4) new genetically modified organisms, (5) regenerative agriculture, (6) urban agriculture, (7) packing innovations, (8) alternative flours, (9) improving shelf life, (10) supply chain technologies, (11) improved soil health, and (12) technology for traceability. The food innovation definition and identified specific food innovations could further connect the agricultural value chain to develop novel nutritious foods and improve agricultural sustainability. Agri-food industry specialists, practitioners, researchers, and policymakers can advance food innovation development and research pinpointing the specific food innovations along the agricultural value chain.

Quality and Nutritional Parameters of Food in Agri-Food Production Systems

“…Studies reveal that consumers generally have favourable expectations towards organic foods and buy these foods because they avoid pesticides (and other chemicals used in food production) and genetically modified foods; moreover, they believe them to be more nutritious, environmentally friendly, natural, healthy, safe, tasty, clean and high-quality [13,20]. While the effects of the agro-food industry on the environment and nutrition lead consumers to organic foods, food availability and affordability can also encourage the purchase of non-organic foods [21]. Several studies reveal that some of the prominent motivating factors for buying organic food are health-promotion or nutrition, attractiveness, nutritional and biological value, domain-specific innovativeness, origin, regionalism, health benefits and awareness, product quality, health and environmental consciousness, social and self-identity, food safety, trust, freshness, credibility, emotions, perception, and sensory properties such as taste, appearance, odour, flavour, intensive aroma, mouth feel and texture [22][23][24][25][26].…”

Building resilience in European food supply chains: results of a Delphi study

“…The examples of Delphi method for the similar research fields may be found in works by Zickafoose et al (2022) who applied this method for forecasting food innovations or in the paper of Allen et al (2019) who used the method to develop a new metric system assessing the sustainability of food systems and diets.…”

Adopting Innovations in Agri-Tech Sector for a Sustainable Future

“…Future food sustainability depends on improvements in agricultural production, agribusiness market profitability, and food technology innovations (Zickafoose, Lu & Baker, 2022). This study will analyse the recent advancements in the food industry and identify upcoming developments that will continue.…”

“…Innovation is the core action for the development and productivity of any economic activity. Research institutions and the food industry are looking for ways to produce food that promotes health, increases food security, and achieves environmental sustainability (Zickafoose, Lu & Baker, 2022). The primary objective of this study is to understand the adoption of innovation in the AgriTech sector for a sustainable future.…”