Abstract:The article considers the possibility of constructing forecasts for macroeconomic indicators taking into account the turning points in their dynamics trends. The calculations are performed on the base of a discrete approximation for the constraints of a simple economic growth stochastic model using the Monte Carlo method. In the first part, the authors analyze the problems of justifying turning point indicators and show that there is no single approach to their definition. Changes in GDP, oil prices and other … Show more
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