Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

Abstract

Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI) is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

Prediction of construction material prices using ARIMA and multiple regression models

“…The use of VEC models to anticipate construction material prices lled a gap in the current literature caused by the necessity of forecasting both short and long-term movements of particular construction materials being overlooked. Kissi et al (2018) modelled the tender price index (TPI), in Ghana using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors. The results showed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the single method in terms of predictive ability.…”

Optimalisasi Rencana Anggaran Biaya pada Perumahan Central Raya Tiban Menggunakan Perhitungan SNI dan Kontraktor

“…Untuk itu diperlukan pedoman dasar perhitungan harga satuan yaitu analisa biaya dalam proyek konstruksi yang sering disebut dengan Analisa Harga Satuan Pekerjaan (AHSP) [14] [15]. Analisa harga satuan pekerjaan ini dipengaruhi oleh angka koefisien yang menunjukkan nilai bahan material, tenaga kerja, peralatan, dan waktu pengerjaan proyek yang dapat digunakan sebagai acuan untuk merencanakan suatu pekerjaan [16] [17].…”