Forecasting Conflict in the Arctic: The Historical Context of Russia’s Security Intentions

Abstract

The Arctic has reemerged as a region of geo-political consequence following rapid reduction in sea ice in the past decade. As the only non-NATO Arctic littoral state, Russia's approaches to the many disputes in the region will undoubtedly have the greatest bearing on the future security environment. This article examines the two most threatening circumpolar disputes, sea bed delineation and navigation rights, and postulates that Russia's policies on both issues conform to historical patterns. Recent Russian policy decisions are placed in historical context in order to gauge conflict potential in the Arctic related to these two disputes. The main finding is that the path-dependent trajectories of both issues are becoming ever more distinct as Russia articulates its Arctic policies. In particular, structural and historical factors encourage Moscow toward cooperation and compromise on sea bed negotiations but also suggest that Kremlin intransigence on navigation will continue, with potentially detrimental effect on regional stability.

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Destabilization of the Internal Situation as One of the Main Threats to the Security of Russian Federation

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