Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies

Abstract

Myotis originated during the Oligocene in Eurasia and has become one of the most diverse bat genera, with over 140 species. In the case of neotropical Myotis, there is a high degree of phenotypic conservatism. This means that the taxonomic and geographic limits of several species are not well understood, which constrains detailed studies on their ecology and evolution and how to effectively protect these species. Similar to other organisms, bats may respond to climate change by moving to different areas, adapting to new conditions, or going extinct. Ecological niche models have become established as an efficient and widely used method for interpolating (and sometimes extrapolating) species' distributions and offer an effective tool for identifying species conservation requirements and forecasting how global environmental changes may affect species distribution. How species respond to climate change is a key point for understanding their vulnerability and designing effective conservation strategies in the future. Thus, here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of two phylogenetically related species, Myotis ruber and Myotis keaysi. The results showed that the species are influenced by changes in temperature, and for M. ruber, precipitation also becomes important. Furthermore, M. ruber appears to have been more flexible to decreases in temperature that occurred in the past, which allowed it to expand its areas of environmental suitability, unlike M. keaysi, which decreased and concentrated these areas. However, despite a drastic decrease in the spatial area of environmental suitability of these species in the future, there are areas of potential climate stability that have been maintained since the Pleistocene, indicating where conservation efforts need to be concentrated in the future.