2023
DOI: 10.20944/preprints202312.1522.v2
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Forecasting by Analogy: A Parallel between the Trend of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in the Winters of 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 in Italy

Marco Roccetti

Abstract: We studied the weekly number and the growth/decline rates of COVID-19 deaths in the period October 31, 2022 – February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding that that COVID-19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holyday weeks extending from December 16, 2022 to January 5, 2023, and it was definitely trending downward, returning to the same number of deaths of the end of October 2022, in the week February 3 – 9, 2023. During this period of fifteen weeks, that wave caused a number of deaths as… Show more

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