Forecasting bunker prices; A nonstationary, multivariate methodology

Stefanakos, Christos; Schinas, Orestis

doi:10.1016/j.trc.2013.11.017

Cited by 28 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Along with this, the negative returns include volatility spillover effects and these effects are useful in diversification of risks thereby mitigating the risks. This paper builds upon the contribution of Stefanakos (2014) research and firstly, applies the volatility analysis techniques using E-GARCH in time series data of IFO 380cst IFO 180cst Singapore bunker prices. The research includes Singapore bunker prices as it is the major of the bunkering hub and important port in the maritime analysis.…”

Section: Leverage Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bunkers can be segregated mainly into three types: Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO), HFO (Heavy Fuel Oil) and MDO (Marine Diesel Oil). The research (Stefanakos, 2014) mentions that there are various categories and classifications of marine fuels. Categories are formed based on 'distillates' and 'residuals'.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Apart from these, there are extensive literature studies commenting on the fluctuations in the bunker prices and also risks associated with it. The research (Stefanakos, 2014) also, mentions that the maritime industry is associated with high risks; for example the ship owners, ship operators, charterers and related parties are exposed to the fluctuation of vessel prices risks, interest rates and currencies and freight rates and bunker (marine fuel oil) prices. Hence, risk mitigation portfolios are made to be risk-averse as these fluctuations impacted on the financial viability of the cash inflows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding volatility and leverage effects in bunker markets

Ranjan¹,

Raju

Jayaraj

et al. 2018

IJGEI

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The research analysed the volatility and the leverage effect in the bunker prices in IFO 380 and IFO 180 grades. Limited studies were found on bunker prices using EGARCH and bivariate analysis. The research investigated the causal relationships between IFO 380 and IFO 180 grades of bunkers. Serial correlations were found through using Lagrange multiplier (LM test) and heteroskedastic tests in the bunker price data. The analysis exhibited the model to be highly significant at 1%. Both the grades showed the short and long-run shocks and a positive leverage effect. The recommendations were made to the maritime industry to strategise during the long run and short-run shocks of bunker markets.

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Section: Leverage Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding volatility and leverage effects in bunker markets

Ranjan¹,

Raju

Jayaraj

et al. 2018

IJGEI

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Large marine diesel engines are generally used for propulsion power, while the secondary electrical power is provided by auxiliary engines which typically use diesel oil. For this purpose, two types of fuel should be available on board: Fuel Oil and Diesel Oil (Stefanakos and Schinas, 2014). The sulfur content of fuel has been adopted with less than 1.5% for low sulfur oils according to international (Marpol Annex 6) and European environmental regulations.…”

Section: Fuel Management (Fm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

An application of fuzzy-AHP to ship operational energy efficiency measures

et al. 2016

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Lowering fuel consumption of ships has gained a great deal of attention in maritime industry with regards to both environmental and economic concerns. The potential for fuel economy in shipping ranging between 25% to 75% is possible by using existing technology and practices and technical improvements in the design of new ship. Despite the existence of many technology and design-based approaches, limitations of emerging these measures has led to discussions about the potential energy savings through operational changes. In this study, operational measures were examined within the scope of Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) adopted by International Maritime Organization (IMO). We applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) approach, one of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques, to prioritize the weight of each measure. Fuzzy AHP effectively reflects the vagueness of human thinking with interval values, and shows the relative importance of operational measures - which can be the fundamental decision making data for decision makers (ships' masters, operating companies and ship owners) - by providing a strategic approach to identify energy efficient solutions

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“…It is indicative that relatively few papers focused on hedging and price forecasting have been published, beyond the contributions of Menachof and Dicer (2001), Alizadeh et al (2004), Schinas and Stefanakos (2013), Stefanakos and Schinas (2014), and Stefanakos and Schinas (2015). This paper builds upon these contributions and examines the price of LNG as a marine fuel in comparison to conventional marine fuels -i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%