Forecasting base metal prices with exchange rate expectations
Pablo Pincheira Brown,
Nicolás Hardy
Abstract:In this paper, we show that survey‐based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non‐ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal Exchange Index. Previous studies have shown that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict copper returns, a world commodity index and base metal prices. Nevertheless, our results indicate that expectations about the Chilean peso have… Show more
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