Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps

Dortmans, Peter J.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.07.003

Cited by 23 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The integration of forecasting and backcasting approaches is both an old and new research issue (Banister et al 2000;Carlsson-Kanyama et al 2008;Dortmans 2005;Gaziulusoy et al 2013;Kok et al 2011;Milestad et al 2014;Robinson et al 2012;van Vliet and Kok 2015). Quist and Vergragt (2006) presented a sequence of stages that integrate participatory backcasting and forecasting approaches.…”

Section: Further Development Of Scenario Design Procedures For Sustaimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review

et al. 2015

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A number of scenarios have been created to explore possible images of and transitions to a sustainable society, as famously represented by the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These can be valuable as underlying information for policy makers making plans for a low-carbon society. Although many researchers have developed individual methods that can be used for designing scenarios, research agendas or challenges for supporting scenario design activities have not been sufficiently discussed. Based on an intensive literature review of existing studies, this paper aims to clarify requisites and challenges for supporting scenario design, particularly in the context of sustainability science. Given that the value of designing scenarios is to help generate and communicate various ideas about the future as argued by sustainability science literature, scenarios are often created with stakeholder participation, through iterative cycles that are composed of three steps: (a) idea generation, (b) idea integration and scenario description, and (c) scenario evaluation. The results of our literature review also show that, though a wide array of methods and tools are available to support some of the steps, there are research issues to be further addressed in supporting scenario design. They include (1) accumulating existing scenarios and simulators as a promising approach to structuring knowledge about sustainability science and (2) ensuring the transparency of the logic underlying scenarios to facilitate communication between participants. Addressing these points will enhance support for sustainability scenario design.

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Section: Further Development Of Scenario Design Procedures For Sustaimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…New methods that incorporate procedures and tools should be developed to support the design of sustainability scenarios. For example, Dortmans (2005) suggested using a tool called field anomaly relaxation (FAR) to analyze the discrepancy between desirable and possible futures.…”

Section: Further Development Of Scenario Design Procedures For Sustaimentioning

confidence: 99%

Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review

et al. 2015

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“…This framework is a technology network (Figure 1). Technology networks bear resemblance to strategic planning maps (Dortmans, 2005), as well as maps of industry interdependency (Hausmann et al, 2011). However, technology networks were first developed and popularized in the Civilization board game and computer game series in the form of technology "trees" (Tresham, 1980;Meier and Shelley, 1991).…”

Section: Technology Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

Alstott¹

2013

Journal of Artificial General Intelligence

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Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development.

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“…Cílem strategického řízení je predikce budoucí situace a efektivní přechod na nové podmínky (Dortmans, 2005). Strategické řízení je v České republice intenzivně zaváděno od druhé poloviny devadesátých let minulého století.…”

Section: úVodunclassified

“…minulou situaci, zatímco strategické plány by měly řešit situaci v budoucnosti (Fidler, 2011). Dortmans (2005) navrhuje spojení informací o minulosti a budoucnosti pomocí tzv. strategických plánovacích map.…”

Section: Diskuseunclassified