Forecasting Appropriate Habitats for Rare and Endangered Indocalamus Species in China in Response to Climate Change

Abstract

China’s rare and endangered bamboo species belonging to the Indocalamus genus, specifically Indocalamus decorus Q. H. Dai, Indocalamus hirsutissimus Z. P. Wang & P. X. Zhang, and Indocalamus pedalis (Keng) P. C. Keng, possess notable value in biodiversity conservation and have significant potential for use in landscape design. Using an enhanced MaxEnt model, this study forecasted shifts in the species’ potential range under four separate climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, and SSP5-RCP8.5), considering both the historical period (1970–2000, referred to as “the current period”) and upcoming timeframes (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). The analysis disclosed that the present total potential habitat area for these species is approximately 251.79 × 104 km2, with high, medium, and low suitability areas occupying 0.15 × 104 km2, 125.39 × 104 km2, and 126.26 × 104 km2, respectively. The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the critical determinant of their potential habitat distribution. Expected climate changes are likely to increase the suitable habitat for these species, although areas with low suitability might slightly diminish, with Guizhou and Chongqing showing the least impact. The distribution centers of suitable habitats for the three plant species consistently exhibit a westward shift under various climate scenarios. These results contribute valuable insights for the spatial distribution, continuous monitoring, sustainable management, and ex situ conservation in response to climate change.