Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data

Lin, Chiun-Sin

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.005

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Presently, there are a few revised diffusion L.V. models used for forecasting in various industries [21,23,39]. However, in this study we applied the modified L.V.…”

Section: The Lotka-votterra Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compared with traditional statistical forecast models, the historical data requirement for model construction of grey predictions can be minimized to at least four data points, the mathematical background for modeling is quite simple, and the forecast performance has high accuracy. For these reasons, grey prediction models have been widely utilized in the different fields of business forecasting, in both previous and current studies [23,[30][31][32][33]. Therefore, grey predictions have become a favorite short-term forecasting technique for understanding the statements with limited past information or difficult to obtain data in the recent three decades.…”

Section: The Grey Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, full data is not always easy to obtain in real situations, such as the estimation of the demand of a new product, new services businesses, etc. Therefore, accurate forecasts with limited historical data have garnered the attention of researchers and company managers [23]. …”

Section: Theoretical Foundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry

et al. 2016

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Abstract:In real practice, forecasting under the limited data has attracted more attention in business activities, especially in the healthcare traveling industry in its current stage. However, there are only a few research studies focusing on this issue. Thus, the purposes of this paper were to determine the forecasted performance of several current forecasting methods as well as to examine their applications. Taking advantage of the small data requirement for model construction, three models including the exponential smoothing model, the Grey model GM(1,1), and the modified Lotka-Volterra model (L.V.), were used to conduct forecasting analyses based on the data of foreign patients from 2001 to 2013 in six destinations. The results indicated that the L.V. model had higher prediction power than the other two models, and it obtained the best forecasting performance with an 89.7% precision rate. In conclusion, the L.V. model is the best model for estimating the market size of the healthcare traveling industry, followed by the GM(1,1) model. The contribution of this study is to offer a useful statistical tool for short-term planning, which can be applied to the healthcare traveling industry in particular, and for other business forecasting under the conditions of limited data in general.

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“…Presently, there are a few revised diffusion L.V. models used for forecasting in various industries [21,23,39]. However, in this study we applied the modified L.V.…”

Section: The Lotka-votterra Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Grey Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry

et al. 2016

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“…Thus the above-mentioned method is not suitable. Instead, to overcome the issue of limited data in the CPBL, this study will employ the grey prediction method, a method that has been used in fields of retailing [21,22], electronics [23], hospitality and transportation [24][25][26], power systems [27,28], and energy [29,30], to derive the performance index of the players for the new season.…”

Section: Mathematical Problems In Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Grey Theory in the Construction of Impact Criteria and Prediction Model of Players’ Salary Structure

Chuang

Chen

2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Salaries of professional players are usually determined prior to the execution of the responsibilities assigned by the organizations and are often based on the expected future performance of these players as derived from their past achievement. The study first identifies criteria that would affect players' salaries through literature reviews and then utilizes grey relational analysis (GRA) and grey prediction model to calculate weights of salary impact criteria, players' annual performance index, and salary prediction for the coming year. The performance data of players from the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) are used in this study. The results are as follows: (i) CPBL teams do refer to players' past performance records and future performance prediction when deciding on their salaries and (ii) future performance prediction must be made using at least a 3-year data set. The proposed prediction model is able to effectively provide relevant and useful information to the CPBL teams' management during players' salary adjustment.

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“…Additionally, without restrictions of data distribution, Grey forecasting models not only have been used in a wide variety of domains but also serve as good decision models for making policy recommendations [4]. Grey Verhulst model, one of the evolved grey models, is usually used for comparing the results with GM (1,1) on predictions of the population growth [5], the mobile and fixed broadband [6], and currency exchange market [7]. Real time communication characterizes the timely information social media platforms can quickly disseminate.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grey Forecasting Models for Social Media Adoptions of Transnational Enterprises

Chang¹,

Wang²

2013

Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Computer, Communication, Control and Automation

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--The lack of adoption data posed difficulties for social media researchers and resulted in scant social media studies focusing on forecasting models. To broach the subject, this study put efforts in studying the benchmark transnational enterprises and collecting the first-hand adoption time data through the APIs of three dominating social media platforms: Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter. Grey system theory facilitates prediction problems of insufficient information, small samples, and uncertainty. Therefore, we compared the performance of two grey forecasting models, GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model, to gain insight into social media adoption trends. Our preliminary results indicated that GM (1, 1) performs better as a potential forecasting model to keep track of trends in adoptions of social media platforms in the market.

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Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data

Cited by 21 publications

References 18 publications

An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry

An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry

Application of Grey Theory in the Construction of Impact Criteria and Prediction Model of Players’ Salary Structure

Grey Forecasting Models for Social Media Adoptions of Transnational Enterprises

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