Forecasting analysis of harvest area, production and productivity of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in North Sumatra Province

Abstract

North Sumatra Province stands out as a key hub for potato cultivation in Indonesia, with a considerable potato consumption rate driven by its substantial population. This study aims to analyze the trend of harvest area, production, and productivity of potatoes in North Sumatra Province from 2007 to 2021. Additionally, it seeks to project the future trends in harvest areas, production, and productivity for the period 2023-2032 through forecasting analysis facilitated by the SPSS program application. The research employs purposive area sampling to determine the study locations, utilizing secondary data sourced from the Central Agency on Statistics of North Sumatra Province. Finding reveal a positive trend in potato harvest area, production, and productivity from 2007 to 2021. Looking ahead to 2023-2032, the forecast indicates a downward trajectory in potato harvest areas, while potato production and productivity are anticipated to maintain a positive trend in North Sumatra Province.