Forecasting a Global Air Passenger Demand Network Using Weighted Similarity-Based Algorithms

Terekhov, Ivan; Evans, Antony; Gollnick, Volker

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-30569-1_26

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…As a starting point passenger demand networks are directly initialized from exogenous socio-economic scenarios [54,55]. As inputs the forecast published by Randers (2012) [56] and the five scenarios of the International Futures Global Modeling System (IFs) [57] are adapted.…”

Section: Air Traffic Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NO x emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NO x is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO 2 effects compensate the reduced warming from CO 2 savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO 2 aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO 2 effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.

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Section: Air Traffic Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

et al. 2017

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“…Here, the presented FoAM model can also be integrated in a global flexible framework as presented in Ghosh et al (2015). The input for the model is the forecasted passenger demand from an external passenger demand model described in Terekhov et al (2015aTerekhov et al ( , 2015b. FoAM does not generate new routes itself but the new routes shall be integrated in the demand model such that passenger demand is given on these new routes.…”

Section: Global Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

From passenger growth to aircraft movements

Kölker

Bießlich

Lütjens

2016

Journal of Air Transport Management

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“…The forecast of the air passenger demand network in future time slices follows two steps as depicted in ( Since we forecast an undirected network which does not know the direction of origin and destination, we call one connection demand city pair. A detailed approach to the applied demand forecasting methodology can be found in [9] and [15]. The basic demand network topology is defined by the data of the base year 2012.…”

Section: Demand Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints

Ghosh¹,

Kölker²,

Terekhov³

et al. 2017

IJAM

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In order to model possible future evolutions of the global air transportation system (ATS), not only the assumptions on external socioeconomic conditions are relevant to estimate the future realized air passenger demand on city pair level. The internal scenario concerning the air transportation system (ATS), i.e. how the ATS is changing over time with the introduction of new technologies or new operational concepts has a non-neglectable feedback on realized demand. Also, the effect of infrastructural changes concerning airport and airspace capacities have to be considered. That means, the forecast of realized demand and thus realized air traffic depends equally on the supply offered by the air transportation system. There are three essential kinds of feedback on realized air passenger demand and air traffic, the supply provided by the ATS may have. We present a theoretical concept to integrate these three kinds of feedback (1) quality of travel, (2) cost of travel, and (3) constraints of the supply side of the air transportation system on modelling global future scheduled air traffic. The 4-layers approach of modelling future evolutions of the ATS is a basic prerequisite to model these feedbacks, especially the consistent derivation of an aircraft movements network with information on aircraft generations.

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Forecasting a Global Air Passenger Demand Network Using Weighted Similarity-Based Algorithms

Cited by 8 publications

References 10 publications

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

From passenger growth to aircraft movements

Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints

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