Forecast on vietnam electricity consumption to 2030

Vu, Nguyen Hoang Minh; Khanh, Nguyen Truong Phuc; Vo-Viet, Cuong; Binh, Phan Thi Thanh

doi:10.1109/iceltics.2017.8253238

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…This method has been widely applied in researches of developing countries, such as Malaysia 4 , Pakistan 5 , and China 6 , etc. The strengths of Cobb Douglas production function are that: (1) it provides detail information about the stable and the changeability of variables and forecasted values; (2) it could be used to investigate the influential factors or variables impacting on forecasted results; and (3) it is a practical method which is easy to be analyzed and calculated 7 . Despite all these advantages, there is no record about experience on applying this method in forecasting long-term electricity demand for the industry and construction sectors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

Võ

Nguyen

et al. 2020

Sci. Tech. Dev. J.- Eng. Tech.

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An accurate forecasting for long-term electricity demand makes a major role in the planning of the power system in any country. Vietnam is one of the most economically developing countries in the world, and its electricity demand has been increased dramatically high of about 15%/y for the last three decades. Contribution of industry and construction sectors in GDP has been increasing year by year, and are currently holding the leading position of largest consumers with more than 50% sharing in national electricity consumption proportion. How to estimate the electricity consumption of these sectors correctly makes a crucial contribution to the planning of the power system. This paper applies an econometric model with Cobb Douglas production function - a top-down method to forecast electricity demand of the industry and construction sectors in Vietnam to 2030. Four variables used are the value of the sectors in GDP, income per person, the proportion of electricity consumption of the sectors in total, and electric price. Forecasted results show that the proposed method has a quite low MAPE of 7.66% for long-term forecasting. Variable of electric price does not affect the demand. This is a very critical result of the study for authority governors in Vietnam. In the base scenario of the GDP and the income per person, the forecasted electricity demands of the sectors are 112,853 GWh, 172,691 GWh, and 242,027 GWh in 2020, 2025, 2030, respectively. In high scenario one, the demands are 115,947 GWh, 181,591 GWh, and 257,272 GWh, respectively. The above values in the high scenario are less than from 9.0% to 15.8 % of that of the based on in the Revised version of master plan N0. VII.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

Võ

Nguyen

et al. 2020

Sci. Tech. Dev. J.- Eng. Tech.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Electricity consumption is growing nowadays especially in developing countries like Vietnam along with economy transformation [1]. According to the recent forecasting consumption, Vietnam electricity system will need more than 500GWh by the year 2030 [2][3][4][5]. The latest master plan for the power system of the country revealed that a half of that figure will be supplied by coal-fired thermal power plants [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental Water Quality Analysis from the Use of High Sulfuric Fly Ash as Base Course Material for Road Building

Duc

2019

Eng. Technol. Appl. Sci. Res.

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Water quality directly influences human life. Drinking water contamination can result in severe health problems. This paper deals with the analysis of water specimens from submergence of material containing high sulfuric fly ash as base course material for road building. The specimens were obtained from real road testing. Results showed that for the material that used fly ash and chemical admixture, water quality was suitable for drinking in accordance with the standard parameters prescribed by the Vietnam Ministry of Health, while for the material that used the same fly ash without chemical admixture, the total arsenic content was eight times higher than that of the former. Thus, if one desires to utilize fly ash with high sulfur as base course material for road building, it needs to be used in combination with appropriate chemical admixture, so that it would not affect ground water quality.

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Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecast Using Datasets of Various Granularities

Arslan

Dilbaz

Ertekin

et al. 2018

Data Analytics for Renewable Energy Integration. Technologies, Systems and Society

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Forecast on vietnam electricity consumption to 2030

Abstract: Abstract-The first but very significant step in electricity system planning is to make an accurate long-term forecast on electricity consumption. This article aims to forecast the consumption for

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

Experimental Water Quality Analysis from the Use of High Sulfuric Fly Ash as Base Course Material for Road Building

Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecast Using Datasets of Various Granularities

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