Forecast of the Evolution Trend of Total Vehicle Sales and Power Structure of China under Different Scenarios

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of the power structure and sales volume of the automobile industry is crucial for corporate decision making and national planning. Based on the auto sales data from 2011 to 2022 compiled from the official website of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total auto sales in China from 2023 to 2030 were firstly predicted using a combined GM (1,1), and quadratic exponential smoothing forecast model optimized by particle swarm algorithm. Subsequently, the vehicles were classified into the following four categories by power: traditional fuel vehicles, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Then, based on vehicle sales data from 2015 to 2022, The Markovian model and the component data model based on hyperspherical transformation are used to predict the vehicle power structure from 2023 to 2030 under the natural evolution scenario and the consumer purchase intention dominant scenario, respectively. The results show that total vehicle sales in China are expected to reach 32.529 million units by 2030. Under the natural evolution scenario and the consumer purchase intention dominant scenario, China will achieve the planned target of 40% of the new car market in the sales of new energy vehicles in 2028 and 2026, respectively. By 2030, under the natural evolution scenario, the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles in the new car market will be 54.83%, the proportion of pure electric vehicles will be 35.92%, the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be 9.23%, and the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be 0.02%. Under the consumer purchase intention dominant scenario, the proportions of the four power types are 36.51%, 48.11%, 15.28%, and 0.10%, respectively.