Forecast of the Comet 46P/Wirtanen Meteor Shower Activity in 2017 and 2019

Maslov, Mikhail; Muzyko, Elena

doi:10.1007/s11038-016-9501-6

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Meteoroids ejection directions are expected to have only a modest influence on a stream's structure after a few revolutions (e.g. Maslov and Muzyko, 2017;Tomko and Neslušan, 2019).…”

Section: Ejection Locationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wiegert et al, 2013;Ye et al, 2014;Soja et al, 2015;Micheli et al, 2016;Ryabova, 2016;Abedin et al, 2015Abedin et al, , 2017Šegon et al, 2017;Kastinen and Kero, 2017;Egal et al, 2018Egal et al, , 2019. Using an ejection scheme inherited from dust trail calculations (ejection at perihelion, along definite directions and with discrete values of velocity V ej ) is another frequent strategy (e.g Maslov, 2014Maslov, , 2016Maslov and Muzyko, 2017;Maslov, 2017, and the examples of Section 5). As detailed in Section 8.1, hybrid approaches consist of filling the phase space by ejecting particles at perihelion in all the directions.…”

Section: Meteoroid Ejectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This parameter measures the minimum distance separating the two closest points between the Earth's orbit and the particle's orbit. Usual limiting values considered are 0.01 (Maslov, 2014(Maslov, , 2016Maslov and Muzyko, 2017), 0.02 (Ye et al, 2014) or 0.1 AU (Wiegert et al, 2013) 4. The physical distance d between the particle and Earth.…”

Section: Impactor Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

Egal

2020

Planetary and Space Science

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“…Meteoroids ejection directions are expected to have only a modest influence on a stream's structure after a few revolutions (e.g. Maslov and Muzyko, 2017;Tomko and Neslušan, 2019).…”

Section: Ejection Locationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Meteoroid Ejectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impactor Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

Egal

2020

Planetary and Space Science

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“…Unlike Maslov & Muzyko (2017), no significant encounter was found in 2012 or 2017 in the QY and JV simulations. In the AE and DM models, thin particle trails formed by particles ejected from 46P between 1925 and 1950 were found to intersect the Earth's orbit in 2012 and 2017.…”

Section: Past Apparitionsmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Moreover, an optical trail was detected by Farnham et al (2019). Maslov & Muzyko (2017) did look for possible showers from the modelling of the associated meteoroid stream generation and subsequent evolution, but no confirmation was performed by significant observation. The goal of this paper is to re-investigate the possibility of a meteor shower caused by 46P, based on several different models and approaches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen expected in December 2023

Vaubaillon,

Ye,

Egal

et al. 2023

A&A

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Context. Comet 46P/Wirtanen is a near-Earth object (NEO) for which no associated meteor shower has ever been reported. Aims. This study is aimed at improving our understanding of why there has been no observed shower activity for this NEO to date, as well as to consider whether any past activity could be uncovered from the post-prediction results. Methods. The usual dynamic tools for meteoroid streams were used to describe the behavior of the particles ejected by the comet. The resulting modeled meteoroid stream was thoroughly inspected for collisions between the stream and the Earth. Results. The results show a possible encounter forecast for December 12, 2023, between 8:00 and 12:30 UT. The slow entry velocity is typically known to cause dim meteors. The activity level of the shower is highly uncertain due to the absence of reported past showers. Conclusions. Overall, the most optimal observations on the forecasted day would be achieved from Eastern Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania. These observations will help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids from comet 46P/Wirtanen in the millimeter range.

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Observations of the new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen

Vida,

Scott,

Egal

et al. 2024

A&A

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A new meteor shower lambda -Sculptorids produced by the comet 46P/Wirtanen was forecast for December 12, 2023. The predicted activity was highly uncertain, but generally considered to be low. Observations in Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania were solicited to help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids in the shower. This work aims to characterize the new meteor shower, by comparing the observed and predicted radiants and orbits, and to provide a calibration for future predictions. Global Meteor Network video cameras were used to observe the meteor shower. Multi-station observations were used to compute trajectories and orbits, while single-station observations were used to measure the flux profile. A total of 23 lambda -Sculptorid orbits have been measured. The shower peaked at a zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) of $0.65^ $ meteors per hour at $ odot circ circ $. Due to the low in-atmosphere speed of 15 km s$^ $, the mean mass of observed meteoroids was 0.5 g ($ mm diameter), an order of magnitude higher than predicted. The dynamical simulations of the meteoroid stream can only produce such large meteoroids arriving at Earth in 2023 with correct radiants when a very low meteoroid density of $ 100$ kg $ is assumed. However, this assumption cannot reproduce the activity profile. It may be reproduced by considering higher density meteoroids in a larger ecliptic plane-crossing time window ($ T$ = 20 days) and trails ejected prior to 1908, but then the observed radiant structure is not reproduced.

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Forecast of the Comet 46P/Wirtanen Meteor Shower Activity in 2017 and 2019

Cited by 4 publications

References 4 publications

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

A new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen expected in December 2023

Observations of the new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen

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