Forecast and Analysis on Reducing China’s CO2 Emissions from Lime Industrial Process

Abstract

China greenhouse gas inventories show that CO2 emissions from the lime industrial process are large scales and closely related to the development of its downstream industries. Therefore, there is high importance to analyze and forecast on reducing China’s CO2 emissions from lime industrial process. The aims of this paper are to make up the research gaps in China and provide a quantitative reference for related authorities to formulate relevant policies. The prediction method in this paper is consistent with the published national inventory, which is an activity data based method to predict carbon dioxide emissions from the industrial process of four categories of lime products. Three future scenarios are assumed. The business as usual scenario (BAU) is a frozen scenario. There are two emission reduction scenarios (ERS and SRS) assumed under different emission reduction strength considering combined industrial process CO2 emission reduction approaches from both the production side and the consumption side. The results show that between 2020 and 2050, China’s lime industrial process has an increasingly significant CO2 emission reduction potential, enabling both emission intensity reductions and total emission reductions to be achieved simultaneously. Based on the simulation results from emission reduction scenarios, compared with 2012 level, in 2050, the emission intensity can be reduced by 13–27%, the total lime production can be reduced by 49–78%, and the CO2 emissions in the lime industrial process can be reduced by 57–85%.

Multi‐scenario simulation on reducing CO2 emissions from China's major manufacturing industries targeting 2060

“…only account for a small portion, the future demand assumption remains unchanged. Therefore, these estimates are within a reasonable range and can correspond to existing literature (Tong et al., 2019).…”

“…The CO 2 emission factor of the lime production process is determined by the raw material composition of lime production and the proportion of CO 2 recovery of lime kiln gas. By 2060, under the three scenarios, the raw material composition of lime production remains unchanged, and the recovery ratios of CO 2 from lime kiln gas are assumed to be 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively (Tong et al., 2019). Therefore, the corresponding process emission factors are 0.62, 0.55, and 0.48 tCO 2 /t lime, respectively.…”

“…China's CO 2 emissions from industrial processes have been rarely explored, especially, a profound and systematic analysis of its future emission trend is sparse. Currently, most studies concentrate on the CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Energy Information Administration, 2018; International Energy Agency [IEA], 2018a) and historical CO 2 emission inventories of industrial processes (Crippa et al., 2019; Cui et al., 2019; Shan et al., 2016; Tong et al., 2019). China's production of iron and steel, cement, primary aluminum, lime, and ammonia accounted for more than 50% of the global production (National Bureau of Statistics of China [NBS], 2018, 2019).…”

An investigation of the global uptake of CO2 by lime from 1963 to 2020

“…By 2020, emissions of CO2 in China attained to 211 Mt yr -1 (95 % CI:187-236 Mt), whereas the cumulative emission was 5700 Mt (95 % CI:4849-6628 Mt), and this accounted for 56.03 % of global CO2 emissions associated with lime production processes. The result that was obtained in the present study is higher than the 172 Mt yr -1 that was forecasted for the same period by Tong et al (2019), and this difference is attributed mainly to the emission reduction scenarios that are considered in each study.…”

The Elimination Effect of Take-Back Regulation on Backward Production Capacity Remanufacturing Supply Chains

“…ere are also some other papers studying eliminating backward production capacity from different industries, like the energy-intensive manufacturing industry [37], coal chemical industry [38], iron and steel industry [39], and cement industry [40].…”