Forces of energy welfare in Central Europe: The Russian war in Ukraine as a game changer

Abstract

The Russian war in Ukraine has changed global geopolitical priorities and the policies of individual countries. The consequences of this ongoing war will be felt for decades to come, including the militarisation of states and the strengthening of political-military alliances. This article explores the effects of this conflict through the lens of energy welfare, which is used as an essential litmus test for the transforming economies of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries in Central Europe. Energy security and the energy transition have become critical topics, and energy security and its impact on social welfare affect the sensitive areas of policy choices that will determine the direction of development in this part of Europe. The V4 countries – Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary – illustrate a wide range of domestic and geopolitical orientations that place individual countries in different decision-making situations. The ideological and political forces determine the scope for achieving energy welfare and are, therefore, the subject of this article. Based on macroeconomic and survey data results, the article’s primary research query examines how the V4 countries’ reliance on Russian fossil fuels affects their political attitudes and societal perceptions of the conflict in Ukraine, and the implications for their energy security and welfare in the face of the European Green Deal efforts. The different strategies adopted by the four countries considered translate into energy transition pathways to a low carbon economy described in the European Green Deal and strategies to provide energy at a reasonable price at the expense of a coherent European policy towards Russian aggression.