Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers

Abstract

We study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, millions of Poles were forcibly uprooted from the Kresy territories of eastern Poland and resettled (primarily) in the newly acquired Western Territories, from which the Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in educational attainment, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today than other Poles. These results are driven by a shift in preferences away from material possessions toward investment in human capital. (JEL I25, I26, J24, N34, R23)

Diversity, Institutions, and Economic Outcomes: Post-WWII Displacement in Poland

“…Can the lessons from the Polish case apply elsewhere? A possible limitation to the generalizability of my findings is the fact that migrants shared Polish nationality and the Roman Catholic faith, even as they spoke various dialects and came from regions with distinct institutional legacies (Becker et al 2018). In this, Poland differs from the ethnically diverse African states, where the impact of diversity on economic development has been especially negative.…”

“…These factors may have influenced migrants’ attitudes toward the state or their economic behavior. For example, Becker et al (2018), who also examine the effects of post-war population transfers in Poland, show that although migrants from different regions did not differ in their education levels before WWII, experiencing forced displacement incentivized the descendants of migrants from the USSR to increase their investment in human capital, a mobile asset.…”

“…My analysis suggests that informal norms and networks are a poor substitute for formal institutions in developed market economies such as Poland. The article also contributes to the growing empirical literature on the legacies of displacement and ethnic cleansing in post-WWII Europe (e.g., Bauer, Braun, and Kvasnicka 2013; Becker et al 2018; Charnysh and Finkel 2017; Sarvimäki, Uusitalo, and Jäntti 2009).…”

Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-war Czechoslovakia

“…1 A large literature documents the consequences of forced migration for displaced individuals and their new homes (for surveys, see Ruiz and Vargas-Silva, 2013;Becker and Ferrara, 2019). A handful of studies investigates the places left behind by forced migrants, and shows lasting differences between ethnically cleansed areas and neighboring regions (Acemoglu et al, 2011;Arbatli and Gokmen, 2018;Becker et al, 2020;Testa, 2020). 2 However, little is known about those who manage to escape ethnic cleansing and stay to become a minority in a new society.…”

Second Quarterly Digest on Forced Displacement

“…Finally, where the expansion of national systems necessitates the introduction of a double-shift, greater effort should be made to deliver high quality education in the second shift that will benefit both refugees and host communities. These investments for refugee education are all the more important since refugees demonstrate a marked shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in education and transferable human capital, which persists over generations (Becker et al 2020). Further evidence is required on refugee education interventions to better inform effective inclusive policies.…”