For Whom are Permanent Jobs off Limits? A Markov-Chain-Based Analysis of Individual Labor Market Dynamics

Beffy, Magali; Coudin, Élise; Rathelot, Roland

doi:10.15609/annaeconstat2009.115-116.315

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Among young people recently out of the education system, 29 percent of those of North African origin and 40 percent of those of sub-Saharan African origin live in ZUS areas, compared with 4 percent of young people of French origin. 11 Finally, several studies suggest that people living in these areas suffer from discrimination in the labor market, resulting in less access to employment (Beffy, Coudin, and Rathelot 2014;Bunel, L'Horty, and Petit 2016) and lower wage levels (Couppié, Giret, and Moullet 2010).…”

Section: Competitive Examination Data and Econometric Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Competitive Examinations Promote Diversity in Civil Service?

Greenan

Lanfranchi

L’Horty

et al. 2019

Public Administration Review

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The representative bureaucracy literature provides a growing body of empirical evidence that a representative public workforce enhances the efficacy and legitimacy of public services. However, little attention has been paid to the capacity of civil service competitive examinations to give equal opportunity of access to public jobs to equally competent citizens. To fill this gap, the authors use French databases to analyze whether competitive examinations comprising both written and oral tests ensure equality of treatment for all candidates regardless of gender, place of residence, or place of birth. The results challenge the capacity of these examinations to treat candidates equally, identifying inequalities in the written tests as well as evaluation biases in the oral tests. However, oral evaluation biases tend to offset inequalities in the written tests. Therefore, selection boards take a sort of affirmative action toward the sole successful members of groups suffering such inequalities.

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Section: Competitive Examination Data and Econometric Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Competitive Examinations Promote Diversity in Civil Service?

Greenan

Lanfranchi

L’Horty

et al. 2019

Public Administration Review

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show abstract

“…We modelled the dynamic of people moving in and out of the CSSA system using a stochastic process (Markov chain process). This method has been increasingly used in labor economics and demographic research, especially in evaluating social policies [19][20][21][22][23]. We first present a simplified model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Strategies for Reducing Number of People in the Social Security System

Yip

Chen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Providing social security to the population in need has become a major expenditure for many governments. Reducing the number of dependents in the social security system and maintaining a dynamic economically active population is a high priority concern for policymakers. A good understanding of the dynamics of the social security system-specifically, who enters and who exits the system-would be helpful for formulating effective interventions. Here, we made use of the data of Hong Kong's Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA), which is currently a basic welfare scheme in Hong Kong that provides supplementary payments to households that cannot support themselves financially.We proposed a stochastic model to examine the in-and out-movement in the CSSA scheme and conducted elasticity analyses. The elasticity analyses allowed us to identify the potential target groups of people that would lead to the largest reduction in the number of the CSSA recipients in the system. This analytical method can also reveal whether policies would be more effective in preventing people from entering the CSSA system or helping them leave the CSSA scheme. Our analyses suggest that targeting those aged 30-49 with children would have the largest impact. Additionally, we found that policies that aim to prevent this group from entering the CSSA system would be more effective in reducing the number of CSSA recipients compared with policies that aim to help them exit. In contrast, for the younger age group of 10-29, policies that help them leave CSSA would be more effective than policies that prevent them from entering CSSA. Providing employment for those unemployed in this younger group would be more effective. The results indicate that by tailoring measures to specific subgroups, the overall number of CSSA recipients would be reduced, thereby improving the efficiency of Hong Kong's social security system, which has accounted for more than 16.5% of Hong Kong government expenditure in 2018, amounting to more than HKD 92 billion.

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“…We estimate

and

on the basis of the return pattern of cases in the database, see [ 20 ]. This method has been increasingly used in labor economics and demographic research, especially in evaluating social policies [ 21 , 22 , 23 ].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Internal Movement of Children Born in Hong Kong to Nonlocal Mothers

Yip

Soleymani

Wat

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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In Hong Kong, approximately 300,000 children were born to Mainland China couples in the period 1991–2012. According to Basic Law, the mini constitution of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) government, these parents do not have residence rights, but their children do. As a result, most of these children have returned to Mainland China with their parents. An important consideration for policymakers is how many of these children (who are now adults in some cases) will return to Hong Kong for good, and when, as this will have a significant impact on social service provision, especially in the education sector, where it will be necessary to ensure there is capacity to meet the additional demand. Prior survey results conducted by the government suggested that more than 50% of these children would return to Hong Kong before age six. It is important to be able to provide a timely projection of the demand into the future. Here, we make use of the immigration records on the actual movement of these children and propose a Markov chain model to estimate their return rates in the future. Our results show that only about 25% of these children would return rather than 50% estimated by the survey. We also find that parents with better educational attainment levels are associated with lower return rates of their children. Timely and relevant social and public policies are needed to prepare for their return to minimize disruption to the local population and promote social harmony for the whole community.

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For Whom are Permanent Jobs off Limits? A Markov-Chain-Based Analysis of Individual Labor Market Dynamics

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Do Competitive Examinations Promote Diversity in Civil Service?

Do Competitive Examinations Promote Diversity in Civil Service?

Optimal Strategies for Reducing Number of People in the Social Security System

Modeling Internal Movement of Children Born in Hong Kong to Nonlocal Mothers

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